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March 2022
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In early August, I wrote a blog about the strategic opportunity for China to reunify with Taiwan following November 3 of this year. I have contemplated writing a follow-up but I have been busy writing Book Two (titled “Bellatrix: the Girl Warrior”) of my trilogy (Book One titled “Unconquered”). As the fateful date of November 3 approaches, I’m beginning to receive requests for a follow-up article. I have a feeling it’s about time. On re-reading that first blog, I find that I do not have to retract a single word. In fact, everything that has happened so far reinforces the strategic situation. I wish that I can be as accurate with handicapping the horses. Meanwhile, there has been an explosion of political punditry and blogs about the Taiwan reunification issue. But most of them are still couched in the old thinking of how many carriers and stealth fighters one has, and what happens if America gets involved. I had mentioned that if China was to take action, they should have the means to succeed with very little, hopefully nil, casualties. I quickly realized that most people could not comprehend how that could be possible. Therefore, for this article, I will first update on the development of the strategic situation for Taiwan reunification with some added details relating to the election. Secondly, I will explain what I mean when I say that China can reunify with Taiwan without causing or suffering casualties.
孙子曰:“不战而屈人之兵,善之善者也。” “The best strategy is to cause the submission of your opponent’s army without battle.” – Sun Tzu Let us review the development of the strategic situation:
Before we get into the nitty gritty of how, I would like to make a disclaimer. The following is purely speculation based on my own imagination. I have no insider knowledge nor am I an expert in military matters. I am however an avid reader of history, in particular military history. Therefore I will try to stay within the realm of the plausible. I will make reasonable assumptions of capabilities not based on science fiction, and I will illustrate only one scenario out of many possibilities. Informed readers may look at this as a launch pad for formulating better ideas and add more details. I have decided to write about this reunification issue because I believe it will make absolutely no impact in the real world, and that I can consider writing this blog a frivolous way to spend a couple of days as a break from writing my book, which is expected to conclude before Election Day.
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26/10/2020 04:54:22 am
Thank you. I would like to republish this essay, with attribution, in my weekly newsletter.
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