Is it possible for China to reunify with Taiwan without causing or suffering casualties?

In early August, I wrote a blog about the strategic opportunity for China to reunify with Taiwan following November 3 of this year. I have contemplated writing a follow-up but I have been busy writing Book Two (titled “Bellatrix: the Girl Warrior”) of my trilogy (Book One titled “Unconquered”). As the fateful date of November 3 approaches, I’m beginning to receive requests for a follow-up article. I have a feeling it’s about time. On re-reading that first blog, I find that I do not have to retract a single word. In fact, everything that has happened so far reinforces the strategic situation. I wish that I can be as accurate with handicapping the horses. Meanwhile, there has been an explosion of political punditry and blogs about the Taiwan reunification issue. But most of them are still couched in the old thinking of how many carriers and stealth fighters one has, and what happens if America gets involved. I had mentioned that if China was to take action, they should have the means to succeed with very little, hopefully nil, casualties. I quickly realized that most people could not comprehend how that could be possible. Therefore, for this article, I will first update on the development of the strategic situation for Taiwan reunification with some added details relating to the election. Secondly, I will explain what I mean when I say that China can reunify with Taiwan without causing or suffering casualties.
 
孙子曰：“不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。”
 
“The best strategy is to cause the submission of your opponent’s army without battle.” – Sun Tzu
 
Let us review the development of the strategic situation:

1. America’s multifaceted attack on China: Despite America’s problems with their handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as being mired in their own economic and social turmoil, they have not let up on their anti-China attacks. By now, Trump is left only with sycophants who will do his bidding but with methods that are crude and crass, causing great damage to America’s long term interests. If American democracy can produce a leader such as Trump, and after this person openly demonstrates that he is a racist, a misogynist, a pathological liar, a cheater, a scofflaw, and a nothing burger, then to have fully 40% of the American electorate to still vote for him, it tells us pretty much what the world can expect from our beacon on the hill. The mask has come off. Don’t expect elections to change anything. Learn to defend yourself. That is the lesson of the day. Some people don’t understand why China would enter into a first stage trade agreement with Trump, knowing no one can punish America for not abiding by any agreements. Given that China never enters into an agreement to do something they don’t want to do, they must actually want to have that agreement. Spending otherwise progressively useless American paper money to buy up American food and energy helps China stock up on its strategic reserves in preparation for a possible conflict in the near future. Doesn’t seem that dumb if you look at it this way. In addition, America’s incessant attacks on China actually reduce China’s downside concerns when it takes action to reunify with Taiwan. China will have little or nothing to lose.
2. The Dollar hegemony: China’s digital Yuan, Shanghai RMB oil futures, gold convertibility, and sovereign currency swaps are all designed to bypass the USD. Some large international companies such as Vale SA, BHP, and Rio Tinto have agreed to trade with Chinese companies in RMBs. Others will follow suit. Why not? RMBs pay more interests and its value is appreciating against the USD. China also makes a lot of things that other countries want. Once China reunites with Taiwan, China may consider pegging both the Taiwan dollar and the Hong Kong dollar to the Chinese Yuan, with plans for the eventual unification of the currencies. The American sanctioning of Nord Stream 2 will have the effect of urging Germany, and other EU businesses, to wean themselves of the USD and find alternatives to SWIFT. America printing trillions with impunity will eventually cause the demise of the hegemony. It’s only a matter of time. The American imperium is built upon the mirage that is the American Dollar. Once people understand that mirages are just reflections over hot air, Americans will have to produce things of value at attractive prices in order to trade. No one will trust American promises, and therefore their promissory notes will not be worth the paper on which their empty promises are printed. Without the Dollar hegemony, Americans will have to give up something to sustain their Military Industrial Complex. It’s a foregone conclusion what will happen. American soldiers will go home and let the UN keep the peace. Hallelujah!
3. Covid-19 Pandemic: This is the perfect storm that unexpectedly grants China more strategic advantages. China did the right thing and stopped the pandemic, while America after ten months is still arguing about mask freedoms, fascist lock-downs, and whether Covid is a hoax or a deep-state power-grab. It’s almost funny if it’s not so sad, so pathetic, and so deadly. For some people living in the united wonderland of delusion, let us not confuse them with facts; it’s all fake news, and China is to blame. People die, what’s the big deal? Actually, China did not invent the pandemic response. It’s really the only effective way to stop the spreading of a highly infectious virus. We had a taste of that during the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak. The problem is implementation. First, everyone must mask up; how hard is that? It’s hard if you don’t have stockpiles, you don’t make them, and you’re attacking the only country that can help you. Second, stay away from crowds and disinfect frequently. Third, test, trace, and quarantine. We already know how hard it has been for some countries to properly implement any one of the above. The reasons why China’s economy has returned to normal are not that complicated: a national policy, a tracking app, checking at all public venues, basic universal healthcare, large scale testing, and a culture of caring for the community. But this requires the people to trust their government and to give up selfish desires for social good. Therefore, it will not happen in America. The pandemic rages on. Only in America. Pity!
4. The economy: Capitalism is singularly incapable of solving the Covid-19 conundrum. You open for business, people get infected, hospitals get filled up, businesses, schools, and stadiums get shut down, and economy goes into deep freeze. You try a lock-down to give hospitals some breathing space, but it won’t work if your neighbors don’t lock down. You bite the bullet and order a serious lock-down to save lives but you reopen too soon, and the lock-down is completely wasted. Meanwhile, the economy tanks. So you forget about the capitalist lies of the free market and fair market for a while. Trillions are created as national debt to save the economy, most of which goes to the banks and big corporations, ending up as cash in the pockets of the 1%, while the 99% gets deeper in debt. Even the piddling amounts that are sent to individuals to help them survive the pandemic only buy them a bit of time. All that money flows from the hands of the poor into the pockets of the landlords, and hence the banks, eventually to sit in the accounts of the 1% again. Untold sums are used to buy up junk debt of corporations run by imbeciles and buck up the casino stock market. The entire USD financial market is a huge bubble scam waiting to burst. They’re just blowing it up with more hot air. Meanwhile, there is inflation on food prices as well as higher prices for imported goods, most of which comes from China and are tariffed by the smart businessman Trump who will Make America Pay Extra, or MAPE. By the way, USD is no longer an attractive investment for China. China has been selling its USD reserves but not fast enough. America’s trade deficit with China continues to expand. With all that US printed funny paper China had made great sacrifices to earn, they cannot invest in America or buy anything of value from America other than commodities. USD pays almost no interest and who knows what’ll happen when the bubble bursts? Actually, America is uniquely capable of solving this Covid economic problem but they won’t do it. Want to know how? While America still enjoys Dollar hegemony and can print trillions with impunity, they can guarantee basic housing, basic food, basic universal healthcare, free education, free broadband, and basic income for everyone. Crime rate will go all the way down to zero because all convicted criminals will lose their benefits. It’s a scary thought. It’ll really make America great again. This will however be the same as communism, and America hates communism, therefore they’ll never do this. Look at how Biden tries to win votes in Pennsylvania. He’ll let them keep on fracking because their economy depends on it. That means people want to keep their slave wage jobs so that fracking companies can receive government support to poison the earth, ruin everyone’s health, and cause devastating climate change, producing expensive fuel that is not supported by the market, so that the fracking companies will get billions in bailout money paid by the debt of the 99% while the 1% owners of the fracking companies are laughing their way to the banks. That’s about the size of it, and the voters of Pennsylvania want to vote for it. The Chinese people can thank their lucky stars that China is run by the Chinese Communist Party, so they don’t need to swallow such bovine shite. 
5. Taiwan: I predicted that the American full court press will step on China’s Taiwan red lines. Everything has come to pass and in spades. It’s as if Americans are playing a game of chicken with China. A casual reading of the news demonstrates it. I’ll refrain from being repetitious. They’re doing the same with Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. China will perform their perfunctory protests each time, but I believe they’re keeping their powder dry for something more spectacular. After all, America can’t do anything about Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong. But Taiwan is a different matter. As I explained in the earlier article that while these attacks seem grievous, they also present great opportunities for China to make a move on Taiwan. America has no interest in sticking to the Shanghai Communiqué, using ambiguity and equivocation as their basis for the China-US relationship, and proudly proclaiming that they’ve tricked the Chinese communists. It’s like promising your wife you’ll never sleep with her sister and later swearing that while you’re in bed with her sister, you never slept a wink. It’s time to call a spade a spade and kick the lecher out.
6. The election: Trump will try everything he can but he cannot change the inevitable. He is universally loathed and people just want him to go away. Those who love Trump also love poisonous snakes. Those who still vote for Trump are those who will vote Republican even if the candidate is a roll of toilet paper … I’m too generous, maybe a sheet, no pun intended. For the few pundits who support Trump’s lies about being antiwar, it’s just a feeble attempt to keep an unsustainable moral position. Trump is not antiwar, and he’s a pathological liar. It boggles the mind that ostensibly well educated people still treat Trump’s lies as anything more meaningful than worm fart. We have all heard the story of the boy who cried wolf. Imagine the boy cries wolf 20,000 times and the villagers still get fooled. Maybe the problem is not with the boy but with the villagers. Then there are others who argue about whether it is democratic to vote for the lesser evil Biden. It appears that these normally cogent pundits cannot comprehend that the American democratic election is but a game. Notice how people “win” elections like they win games. These are winner-takes-all games; they’re I-win-you-lose zero-sum games. American presidential elections have complex game rules that players must understand and master. If you don’t play the game well, you will lose, and you’ll be nothing. Your 269 electoral-college votes representing 55% popular votes won’t count. It has nothing to do with democracy; it has nothing to do with governing; it has nothing to do with representing the people; it most certainly has nothing to do with serving the people. It is a blood sport that requires a lot of lying, cheating, finagling, bribing, back-stabbing, and horse trading. It gives 100% of the prize to the one winner, who gets four to eight years of imperial dictatorship. What changes did Obama bring other than depriving you of hope and making you give yourself up to be spirally skewered by a lying imbecile for four years plus a whole generation under an extreme right-wing Supreme Court? Congratulations, you’ve taught the Democrats a lesson … not. So stop moralizing like a fool, accept American democracy for what it is, and play the bloody game already. Don’t forget your life depends on it; play to win. Yogi Berra said, “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” But for American elections, the rules are well known, and it is possible to make fairly accurate predictions, especially for this one. Assuming independents are mostly people with normal cerebral functions, a preponderance of them will not vote for Trump this time around. The Republicans will have a hard time changing this. Even October surprises won’t work, because the Democrats have a bunch of surprises of their own, such as Trump’s tax returns, his secret China bank account, and Guiliani’s Borat debacle. One thing can be said about Americans, they know how to put on a game show. Dang! It’s good TV. Trump should start packing, get his passport, and decamp to Scotland forthwith. As if.
7. Chaos: Trump on the other hand cannot afford to lose. This election is an existential battle for Trump. The Trump dynasty must continue. Four more years for the Donald, and then Ivanka will inherit the throne. You can almost imagine the chapter title of that patriotic history text book, “The Ten Thousand Year Reign of the Trump Dynasty.” The moment Trump steps down and Barr shown the door, Trump and his family as well as his companies will be swarmed with lawsuits and indictments. There will be multiple state prosecutions. Deutsche Bank records will be leaked. The Republican Party will disown him, after costing them the Senate. His erstwhile allies will shun him like the plague. No one wants the IRS, federal agents, and state prosecutors at the door. He won’t be socializing with his base at the Catskills; he loathes them. Melanie will likely take her cut of the pie (including Barron’s) and protect her assets by keeping her distance from the Donald. Biden thinks that Trump will congratulate him and leave quietly. He doesn’t know Trump. Some say that Trump will pardon himself. But he can’t pardon himself from state prosecutions and his companies cannot be exempt. He certainly can’t escape the IRS. There is no other scenario except that Trump’s life will turn to hell if he loses. Most people won’t know what to do if they’re faced with such a dire situation, but I do. I had worked for someone very similar to Trump. The following are my predictions, and I sincerely do not wish any of them to happen, but wishful thinking will get us nowhere. So here goes nothing.
   1. Trump refuses to accept defeat on November 3, even if the ballot count on that day clearly indicates no route to election victory for him. Since there is a huge mail-in vote this time, he can say let us wait for the ballots to be counted. The rest of us know very well that the record mail-in ballots represent a huge Democrat win, perhaps with a Senate majority.
   2. Trump will try to invalidate election results, crying foul over alleged irregularities, challenging ballots in state courts, and depending on the right-wing SCOTUS to eventually back up his election chaos.
   3. Trump will incite social disturbance from his base, which has been standing back and standing ready. The police will do nothing as their response to being the target of recent BLM protests. Many normally peaceful folks have resorted to carrying concealed weapons to protect themselves and their property.
   4. Trump will try to create enough chaos so that the entire election is in a cloud by the Safe Harbor deadline of December 8. Without a clear result by that day, the Electoral College can’t cast their votes. And if there are not enough Electoral College votes for either side to reach 270 votes, there will be no president elect for the next term.
   5. Trump will invoke the Twelfth Amendment for a Contingent Congressional vote, which gives a single vote to each state, and with currently twenty-six Republican states out of fifty, this could give the presidency to Trump.
   6. The anti-Trump crowd will take to the streets.
   7. Trump declares national emergency and calls in the troops.
   8. SCOTUS will favor Trump and declare his re-election constitutional.
   9. The people will not accept and start a revolution.
   10. Alternatively, the people decide to go home and quietly collect their survival checks from Trump, hoping to exercise their democratic rights in four years’ time. By then, they’ll be all too happy to vote for Ivanka. I’d vote for her too. She’s hot. Even King Donald said so.
   11. In any case, the question of who’s in charge will likely linger on at least until Inauguration Day 2021 on January 20.
   12. It almost feels like waiting for the final episode of Games of Thrones.
8. Other chaos: America will not be the only place with a bit of turmoil. Watch out for the end of the year when No Deal Brexit comes into effect. Even if there is a last minute half-baked deal, as opposed to the oven-ready deal promised by Bojo, it will not be implemented in time, and chaos will ensue. If there is no border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, then there must be a border between Northern Ireland and England, over which the EU will have control. Northern Ireland in effect stays in the EU. Maybe someday they’ll wake up and say the hell with the charade, let us just join the Republic. Scotland, which had voted for “stay” will be mightily displeased to see Northern Ireland enjoying the benefits of the common market. Maybe this time, their secession referendum will give them the votes to leave the UK, also known as Unhinged Kingdom, creating more chaos with Scoxit. Watch also for Russia and Germany to declare around the end of the year the completion of Nord Stream 2. Will Trump make good his promise to sanction Germany? Will Germany leave NATO? Will Ramstein Air Base be moved out of Germany? The biggest story outside of the US will probably be the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan. Yum!
9. Best dates: Biden’s people are already throwing a lot of bait at China, hinting of a truce when Biden ascends the throne, probably in an attempt to forestall any drastic actions from China that Biden will not be able to reverse. That is why China must make use of this Lame Duck window of chaos from Election Day to Inauguration Day to take action. After all, it will happen on Trump’s watch. No one can blame Biden. China has been pretty much forced to do it. While it seems November 3 might be a good day, there are better alternatives. As we can see from the above, the end of the year could be a good time as well. China would have signed the RCEP, creating the world’s largest trading bloc. A day when everyone would be having a holiday in the West but not necessarily in China or Taiwan would be a very propitious day, for example, Christmas Day. It’s a Friday, and a long weekend to boot. That would be in the tradition of America’s founding father George Washington, who crossed the Delaware during the dead of night in December 25 and early morning of December 26, making a surprise attack on drunken soldiers quartering in Trenton. According to war etiquette of the times, it was most ungentlemanly bordering on the uncivilized. But who said anything about fighting fair? Washington fought dirty but he fought to win, very much an American tradition.

 
Before we get into the nitty gritty of how, I would like to make a disclaimer. The following is purely speculation based on my own imagination. I have no insider knowledge nor am I an expert in military matters. I am however an avid reader of history, in particular military history. Therefore I will try to stay within the realm of the plausible. I will make reasonable assumptions of capabilities not based on science fiction, and I will illustrate only one scenario out of many possibilities. Informed readers may look at this as a launch pad for formulating better ideas and add more details. I have decided to write about this reunification issue because I believe it will make absolutely no impact in the real world, and that I can consider writing this blog a frivolous way to spend a couple of days as a break from writing my book, which is expected to conclude before Election Day.
 

1. The idea of capturing a prize in military action without having to fire a blunderbuss is not new. In fact such an event happens all the times. It depends on one side gaining strategic and tactical advantages which allow it to say “your money or your life.” A good example would be the siege and surrender of Beijing in the Pingjin Campaign of the Chinese Civil War, which closed out the three major campaigns that sealed the fate of Chiang Kai-shek’s rule of China. This is just to illustrate that the suggestion that China can forcibly reunify with Taiwan without fire and fury is not a frivolous imagination.
2. What about the concern that China might get into a shooting war with the US? America is very good at posturing and making a lot of sound and fury, but evidence shows that America will not get involved in a shooting war with China, especially not for Taiwan. We should understand that America is a country that cannot truly win a war even against the Talibans in Afghanistan. Please explain how it is going to win a war against China. Remember that wars happen because at least one side believes that it can win the war and that it will benefit from winning that war (like Trump’s “trade wars are easy to win”). Neither condition exists. Besides, America doesn’t really care about Taiwan or people living in Taiwan. The island is at best a pawn to America. No Americans will die for Taiwan. In fact, America will immediately sanction Taiwan once it reunites with China. Just look at Hong Kong and Xinjiang. In any case, if China is really uncertain about America’s reaction, they can always enter into a defense alliance with Russia, agreeing to defend each other when their countries are attacked. Putin has been pushing for a military alliance with China anyways. Maybe it’s a good time for it.
3. What about Taiwan’s ability to defend itself? I don’t know the details but I believe it’s not good. I remember ten years ago watching on TV some Taiwanese politicians arguing about why Taiwan shouldn’t waste money buying extremely expensive antiquated weapon systems from the US. The well-known author and politician Li Ao, who went to jail for criticizing the Chiang Kai-shek regime, forced the defense minister to admit that Taiwan could at best withstand a sustained attack by China for about two weeks. In a sense, almost everyone who knows anything about Taiwan understands that if the PLA decides to make a move on Taiwan, it will not be a matter of whether they’ll succeed, but how long it’ll take.
4. So why hasn’t China taken action on Taiwan? In the spirit of the Shanghai Communiqué, China would prefer to reunify peacefully. Unfortunately, that will not happen. In fact, America will not let it happen. Therefore, the next best thing for China is to achieve strategic and tactical advantages that will allow it to forcibly but peaceably reunify with Taiwan. The idea is that Taiwan is a part of China; it is preferable that in the process of reunification, no lives will be lost and no property will be destroyed. China wouldn’t mind having some American weapons to study and reverse engineer. This is another reason why America won’t sell any advanced weaponry to Taiwan.
5. Finally, let us cut to the chase and demonstrate one scenario of how:
   1. Have the PLA declare the following or something similar, maybe supported by legislature, promoted on Global Times and CCTV, and disseminated through official government press releases. The point is, China makes sure everyone knows its position. It will not be a surprise when China strikes. China is being forced to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity: “Given recent developments within Taiwan of secessionist forces working in cahoots with foreign powers to harm China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, we feel that it is imperative to reiterate and emphasize our position in no uncertain terms. The PLA’s role is to defend the country’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity. It does not consider Taiwan’s defense forces as its enemy, provided it defends the island of Taiwan against nefarious local and foreign secessionists on behalf of all the people of China. The PLA will not however tolerate any actions that will jeopardize China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, whether from within or from without, whether covert or overt. The government of China supported by the PLA will prosecute any and all individual or organization to the limit of China’s Anti-secession Law. We promise the people of China; not a single Quisling will escape the wrath of the Chinese people. China wants peace and China is willing to be patient. China cannot however contain the anger of its people, when everyone can see that China is being attacked and its territorial integrity is under grave threat. Chinese red lines regarding Taiwan has been stepped on and crossed repeatedly while China continues to exercise extreme tolerance for the sake of our Taiwanese compatriots, for they’re our own blood. We have come to a point where such tolerance no longer serves the interest of the Chinese people. For those who have declared themselves the enemy of the Chinese people, take heed. Don’t tread on me!” (This type of PLA statement is actually not new. This time, PLA sends a serious warning that Taiwan secessionists should start moving their assets and family out of Taiwan, because the writing is on the wall that they will be weighed and they will be found wanting. Their sentence will be severe. The statement also tells the secessionists that the PLA’s impending action on Taiwan is strongly supported by the people of China. “Don’t tread on me” is of course a popular motto in America. In the sense that, if you step on me, I will strike)
   2. The PLA declares large scale live fire joint forces drills north and south of Taiwan for the month of December, publicizing the zone of exclusion. This is not out of the ordinary, as it has also been done before. In fact, do one or two mock drills during the earlier parts of the month as dress rehearsals and to inure the ROC defense force. By D-Day, if China has decided to enter into a defense alliance with Russia, the D-Day action may include Russian naval vehicles positioned to the north and east of Taiwan. The presence of Russian ships would further deter adventurism from American bases in Japan and South Korea. While those bases are supposedly purely for the defense of Japan and South Korea, one should not depend on other’s promises. We’ll deal with that issue separately. (This rationalizes the concentration of troops and warships that will shut off the Taiwan Strait to third party traffic. The north and south army groups can act as pincers to threaten or guard the flanks while putting the northern army group within striking distance of Taipei. All these are of course threats, and in the words of the great chess master Aaron Nimzowitsch, “the threat is more powerful than the execution.” Chess aficionados would know about the famous Nimzowitsch cigar anecdote, when he complained about his opponent fiddling with a cigar during a match. The director said his opponent wasn’t smoking, Nimzowitsch said. “But he’s threatening to smoke. Everyone knows the threat is more powerful than the execution.” Nimzowitsch who hated cigar and cigarette smoke lost the protest as well as the match)
   3. All PLA forces will be mobilized for the month of December. The highest level of security will be implemented. Except for necessary and controlled communications, the PLA will maintain radio silence for the month of December. The military police will be on standby. All civilian suppliers and service providers to the PLA are advised to be stocked up and on standby. Special Operations forces and special agents (Minnan speakers) will infiltrate Taipei in significant numbers, with plans to take over important institutions of communications, such as broadcasters and server centers. Special Ops are also required to secure all buildings and personnel of foreign missions in Taipei.
   4. A plan should be drawn up for the peaceful control of Taiwan’s civil services and civil security after the effective control of Taiwan by the PLA.
   5. This section on nuclear deterrence is optional, as nuclear deterrence is normally well understood among nuclear armed nations. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that a nuclear armed nation will always select an intelligent leader who has his finger on the button. In order to make it absolutely clear that China can and will defend itself, China may either make a defense pact with Russia, or change its stance in the usage of nuclear arms, or both. Chinese state council may explain that China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity have been openly threatened and infringed upon by a nuclear armed nation. China has no choice but to defend itself accordingly. China will therefore withdraw its promise not to make the first nuclear strike and to leave all options on the table, effective immediately. The PLA may, on a separate occasion, clarify its nuclear stance, declaring that any country hosting soldiers from a nuclear armed nation which attacks China may be considered by China to be a hostile nation. It is important that this statement by the PLA is a military position but not a political position. When politicians are asked about it, they can simply reply, “China is a peaceful country and has no enemies, neither does China want to create any enemies. On the other hand, if a hostile country decides to attack China and harm China’s sovereign interests, then the PLA has a duty to defend the motherland. And we expect all sovereign nations’ defense forces to do the same. The people of China will fully support the PLA in performing its sanctified duty.”
   6. In the days leading to D-Day, China will disseminate and promote through its Cross-Strait communications channels the following message to the Taiwanese people and its military:
      1. China’s territorial integrity is being threatened.
      2. The PLA’s duty is to defend the motherland; it will not tolerate anyone harming China’s territorial integrity.
      3. Anyone taking any action that may harm China’s territorial integrity will be prosecuted according to China’s Anti-secession Law.
      4. Anyone who causes physical harm or incites others to cause physical harm to PLA forces will be treated as an enemy of the Chinese people, and will be responsible for all the lives lost and property damaged as a consequence of his or her actions. They and their accomplices will be considered war criminals and traitors. They will have nowhere to hide.  
      5. All Taiwanese compatriots must consider the safety of their home, their family, their parents, their wives, and their children when they choose to stand with the motherland or with the traitors. But understand that nothing will stop the PLA from defending the motherland. Those who love their home and prefer peace can choose to live in peace and prosper with the rest of their compatriots from the mainland; those who do not can pack up and leave. But the PLA, with the support of all the people of China, will not fail in its mission. (All of this is to psychologically prepare the Taiwanese soldiers. They are mostly ordinary youths conscripted to serve four months to a year. It’s doubtful that they’ll want to die. Many of them probably want to attend school or work in the mainland. Some ROC officers may also have Kuomintang leanings, as the ROC military was originally brought over from the mainland under Kuomintang rule. The message is to convince the ROC soldiers not to fight)
   7. Let the message sink in for a couple of weeks. Naturally, Americans and Western “journalists” will hear of it and want clarification. The official line is that this is but a PLA posture, and that the Cross-Strait communications are in response to requests for clarification. It’s mostly posturing.
   8. I do not know the details, but if I have a say, I would prefer that all PLA vehicles and unit commanders, down to platoon level to be equipped with two-way Beidou GPS. Not only can Central Command know immediately where exactly the platoons are, but can understand the situation on the ground by return messaging, and therefore be able to make immediate adjustments accordingly. All military signals will be encrypted by one-time keys which are almost impossible to break. The weakness lies in key generation and key distribution as well as human failure. I have no idea how strong is the PLA’s encryption system. It is extremely important for Central Command to maintain connected to the troops and remained informed of situations on the ground, but equally important is that the information is not available to the target of your operation or to third parties. If the PLA has a really strong security division, they should also be able to develop a friend or foe identification system to reduce friendly fire in the fog of war. 
   9. Most of the Chinese fishing fleet, if they are not already in port for the winter, will return home to attend Winter Solstice Dinner (December 22). This is an important festival and many Chinese regard this day of higher importance than the Spring Festival (冬至大过年; Extreme of Winter bigger than New Year). There will be tens of thousands of ships at port. The ships and their crews will be commandeered for ferrying troops across the Taiwan Strait. The loading will occur under cover of darkness.
   10. D-Day, T-1 hour, Taiwan lock-down begins. Taiwan communications to the outside world will be physically severed.
       1. Through its agents inside Taiwan, the PLA declares communications lock-down and martial law in Taiwan. The message is simple. The PLA is here to defend the territorial integrity of the motherland. It is already in control. The sky is patrolled by armed drones. Stay home and stay safe; go outside and risk being shot down at sight. No communication is permitted. All your messaging and calls are monitored and recorded. Violators will be prosecuted. This is a peaceful operation. Do not panic.
       2. Through the same platforms in Taiwan and other existing communications channels, the PLA issues No Fly Zone warning over Taiwan. All Taiwan planes, civilian or military, are ordered to land or risked being shot down without warning.
       3. All Taiwan ships and submarines are ordered to return to port or risked being sunk without warning.
       4. All Taiwanese radars and satellite uplinks are ordered to shut down or risked being destroyed.
       5. All news agencies, media organizations, and individual reporters are ordered to cease and desist in transmitting any unauthorized messages.
       6. Those not following the shutdown order as well as their accomplices, regardless of whether they are military or civilian, will be prosecuted. 
   11. D-Day, T-1 hour. Two aircraft carrier groups arrive to the east of the Taiwanese Island, closing the ring.
   12. D-Day, T-1 hour. AWACS protected by fighters take up position to cover the entire Taiwan and surrounding areas.
   13. D-Day, T-0.5 hour. After securing broadcasters, Special Ops will deliver to the ROC defense force a second message.
       1. The PLA will not attack the ROC defense force. Not a single Taiwan compatriot needs to die. But anyone who refuses to lay down their arms, or attacks the PLA will be responsible for the dire consequences, because the PLA will be forced to attack with disproportionate and overwhelming firepower. If a single PLA soldier is harmed, the return fire may cause 100 times the casualties, all of which will be on the head of the ROC soldiers.
       2. No one will be allowed to damage any existing weapon systems, public facilities, government records, and financial assets. It is the responsibility of the individuals in charge of these assets to protect them to the best of their abilities until an officer of the PLA takes over.
       3. The PLA welcomes all ROC soldiers and officers to join us in the defense of the motherland. If entire units join us, then these units will continue to safeguard Taiwan after the reunification.
       4. The PLA will also treat with leniency all those who lay down their arms and surrender without causing harm. They and their families will be safe. For all others, the PLA will punish with extreme prejudice.
       5. The PLA will reward anyone who arrests traitors and secessionists. A list of traitors and war criminals will be publicized. Stay tuned. All those giving safe haven to traitors and war criminals are considered accomplices, and will be prosecuted accordingly.
       6. Join us or surrender peacefully, and Taiwan will continue to be run by the local population as a Special Administered Region. But if you resist, and the PLA suffers casualties, then we will not be able to make the case for Taiwan in front of the people of China, whose sons have died to safeguard Taiwan from the traitors and secessionists.
   14. D-Day, T-0.5 hour. A fleet of large drones are sent off both by sea and by air to test the response of the ROC defense force. Drones will be sent over Taipei.
   15. D-Day, T-0 hour. The first wave of the landing force sets off, protected by war ships and air cover, timed to arrive at designated positions just before daylight.
   16. Rapid deployment of tanks, mobile artillery, and troop carriers to coincide with the landing of the first wave. All units will advance towards Taipei to join up with Special Ops. Armed drones and fighters will rule the sky over Taipei. Once the skies are safe, paratroopers and armored vehicles can be transported directly into the center of Taipei, moving quickly to occupy and control important government buildings including the police.
   17. Once Taipei is secured, a list of secessionists is publicized, ordering their arrest.
   18. News of PLA control of Taipei and arrests of traitors will be broadcast to Kaohsiung and other major cities, including scenes of wholesale surrender of ROC defense force. Martial law is imposed and everyone is told to go home and stay home. Tell everyone to stay calm, refrain from spreading rumors, and wait for more news. Emphasize that the reunification has been largely peaceful and without casualties. Taiwanese politicians, business leaders, farmers, and Taiwan’s people will participate in its future. They will be invited to hold talks in Beijing. Taiwanese leaders will be asked to speak to the people to calm their nerves. Assure the people that when the PLA has established that Taiwan is safe from traitors and secessionists, daily life will return to normal.
   19. Most of this scenario is based on the understanding of human psychology. Despite all the bluster, every Taiwanese understands that if the PLA makes a move, the best the ROC defense forces can do is to slow down the PLA, maybe for a day or two. For that, many will die, or if they survive, they will be counted as traitors, affecting the lives not only of themselves, but of their families. Besides, despite the brainwashing and obfuscation of the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party), most Taiwanese cannot be so stupid as not to understand how the mainland has developed and how one million Taiwanese live and thrive in the mainland. The whole operation is still highly militaristic, but the threat will allow the PLA to assume control without having to resort to violence.
   20. There are numerous advantages to China’s reunification with Taiwan, as long as it can be done without much overt violence and it does not drag on. There is practically no downside. Consider that China together with Taiwan will boast the biggest semi-conductor and electronics manufacturers. China also controls 90% of essential rare earths. China manufactures most of the world’s medicinal raw materials. Countries hostile to China will soon discover that they’ll experience many shortages. China’s military alliance with Russia will give strength to both countries. South Korea will have to consider asking China to guarantee its safety and to be the intermediary for peace talks with North Korea. Americans will first have to leave. Japan will be isolated if they do not join other Asian countries. Their strategic situation would have changed overnight. To their north is China's ally Russia, which still has no peace treaty with Japan; to their west is their bitter neighbor and ex-colonial victim Korea; to their south is now Taiwan reunified with China. Their only open route is their east coast, which may soon be if not already glowing with radioactivity as they pour irradiated water into the Pacific. With Chinese naval bases in Taiwan, most of the surrounding islands will return to China’s control. China’s successful execution of the operation will cause some countries sitting on the fence to jump off it. Anyways, we live in interesting times.

Now that I have wasted the weekend on what may be described as fantasy politics, sort of like fantasy baseball, I’m ready to return to my book, which includes the story of human civilization from when it received the first spark of divine fire, and how it spread around the world to create all the ancient civilizations. There are chapters decoding the biggest mysteries of Dream of the Red Chamber, the greatest of China’s four classics. And the last part introduces the readers to an invincible Canadian general who never lost a single battle in his life and changed the history of the world with his astounding victories. His only defeat came at the hands of a woman, his wife, a living legend in her lifetime. The book’s heroine Victoria is watching one of the greatest battles ever fought unfold in front of her eyes. And then … an unexpected ending. Better get back to it. Anyone interested to read first draft and comment please let me know.