AuthorPeter Man Archives
March 2022
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Disclaimer: This answer does not take any political stand between mainland China and Taiwan and does not advocate for war, peace, or status quo. Furthermore, it is entirely based on public information, reasonable logical deductions, and a bit of personal insight. The answer is not derived from any confidential information and is at best an educated guess. Many things could happen in the interim to change the outcome of this analysis.
In order for the readers to make their own judgment about the writer’s natural bias, which is inevitable, a short background bio is provided here. The writer was born in Hong Kong during British colonial rule. His parents were both staunch anti-communists. His father was an ex-communist who had written popular historical novels that excoriated the Chinese Communist Party. The writer was baptized at birth and had a mostly Westernized upbringing being educated by the Catholic Brothers at a boys-only English school (La Salle). The writer later went to university in Canada and became a Canadian citizen. Now fully half of his extended family in North America is non-ethnic Chinese or of mixed ethnicity. Despite his Westernized and Catholic upbringing, the writer has always been interested in Chinese history and Chinese literature. He can speak Cantonese and Mandarin, and can read and write Chinese both in the traditional and simplified forms. In his youth, the writer was a pioneer of Chinese language television in Canada, establishing the first national Chinese language television station in the country. His position as a licensed broadcaster required neutrality and balance, which was also necessary for bringing harmony to the Canadian Chinese communities served by the licensee’s programming service. The writer later lived in China for nearly two decades working in the broadcasting and digital media technologies industry, personally experiencing business and social life in China, and directly witnessing China’s meteoric rise. He has written a sci-fi adventure novel “Unconquered” which spans across the entire history of China, and its sequel "Bellatrix: the Girl Warrior" to be followed by "Augenblick: the Blink of an eye." His other Quora articles include “What is China?” and “Who is Sidney Rittenberg?” Visit author website at https://stone-man.weebly.com/ or contact him at [email protected] (Subject: Blog reader) With the long introduction out of the way, I would like to outline the following observations:
(ii) Concerns of Hong Kong: China had always supported Hong Kong’s development and wanted Hong Kong to be the vanguard of China’s own development. The success of Hong Kong SAR self-rule and Hong Kong’s reintegration with the mainland would also be a good example for solving the Taiwan problem. Unfortunately, foreign intervention poisoned the heretofore peaceful society of Hong Kong which turned some youngsters into violent extremists. Being myself a citizen of Hong Kong with family and friends living in the city, I have first-hand knowledge of the inveterate hatred towards all things China held by some Hong Kong people. They are visible in schools, among teachers, the media, the press, and even among government officials. Many of these people also receive salaries and funding from the Hong Kong government. While some Hong Kong people are truly concerned about their society and want to express their concerns in the form of peaceful protests, others have engaged in highly racist and violent acts. There are restaurants in Hong Kong with signs saying they do not serve Mandarin speakers (hint, mainland Chinese). Others have engaged in violent secessionist activities. For these people, no other narrative exists about China other than that China is evil. My mother has been a teacher all her life, which in Hong Kong is a government job, and I hear this kind of extreme anti-China vitriol from her every day. No wonder most of her students hold similar views, and now their children will do the same. For a long time, like about twenty-three years, China had been patient and waited for the Hong Kong government to establish the National Security Law according to the Basic Law of Hong Kong SAR. Unfortunately, foreign operatives accustomed to wreaking havoc at other countries with regime change forced China’s hand. After waiting a whole year for Hong Kong to quell the street violence and calm the political waters of the SAR on its own, but seeing a downward spiral instead, China had to step in. Again, by that time, China had nothing to lose except the covert CIA and MI6 operatives. Edward Snowden called the American Embassy in Hong Kong the home-base of CIA agents. As the nations of the West wag their righteous fingers at China and cut ties with Hong Kong, China (PRC) once again arrives at the situation whereas their reunification with Taiwan will not create too much concern of fallout from the West vis-a-vis Hong Kong SAR. (iii) China vs. Taiwan military: Is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strong enough to cause the fall of the ROC government? I remember watching a video from perhaps ten years ago of Taiwanese author and politician Li Ao (1935-2018) pressing a minister of defense of Taiwan on how long ROC’s army could withstand a PLA attack. The answer was two weeks. The idea was that a knight in shining armor would come to the island’s rescue during the two weeks of unyielding defense. China’s PLA is ostensibly much stronger today with two operational carrier groups and hyper-sonic missiles. Although some analysts say that China should wait for at least three carrier groups to be operational, and some say that China should secure its trade routes across Central Asia, Pakistan, and Iran, which may take another ten years, before taking military action, other developments are pushing the schedule forward. Purely in terms of military abilities, there is no question that China is ready today. In a civil war such as this, one should not think only in terms of carriers and landing crafts or missiles and bombers. I do not want to speculate on tactical details, as I believe there are career soldiers and qualified tacticians who may have already laid out the plans. Why should China move its reunification schedule forward? If we remember the American full court press, China’s red line on Taiwan is in the process of being crossed. US Congress just approved sales of military equipment to Taiwan. China hawks are talking everyday about decoupling from China and recognizing Taiwan. They are forcing Taiwan’s top electronics and microchip manufacturers to establish production facilities in America and to stop supplying Chinese firms. The longer China waits, the higher likelihood that there will be more complications in the event of a reunification by military action. China’s hand is forced, and again, it has nothing to lose and it should act fast. (iv) The optimum period: There have been of late quite a few articles surfacing on Asian news websites and videos posted on Youtube talking about the Taiwan reunification issue. Most of them are however sensationalist and talk about military action in August or September without strong reasons. Other pundits, especially from Taiwan, refuse to name a date because of the sensitivity of the subject. In my opinion, if China decides to make a move on Taiwan reunification, the most likely timing should be from the day of the presidential election on Nov. 3 until the end of the year. The issue should be settled swiftly, precisely, and with minimal casualties. Whether Trump wins or loses the election, America is expected to undergo some turmoil. This will be in addition to the Covid-19, the street protests, the economy, the gun violence, etc. And we’re only assuming it’s going to be all quiet on the other fronts. Look for China’s friends and allies to light up some low intensity fires at other parts of the world as diversion. There is major upside for China if they succeed in their reunification with Taiwan. Aside from Taiwan’s strategic location, the world’s largest electronics manufacturer Foxconn and the world’s most advanced microchip manufacturer TSMC will become Chinese companies. Coupled with the fact that China already makes everything else for the world, it may be very difficult for countries in the West to sanction China or wage trade/technology wars against China without hurting themselves. China’s successful military action will also demonstrate to the world that the country will not be trifled with. This strategic message may make life a lot easier for Chinese companies doing business in other parts of the world. It may also be easier for China to maintain peace and develop its Belt and Road Initiative from a position of strength. Everything of course depends on successful execution. Conclusion: This is the speculation of an individual made with the intention to provoke thought. Regardless of whether the analysis makes sense or not, it will certainly make no impact, as the world is a complicated place, and no one can predict the future. Even if this analysis turns out to be prophetic, it will still suffer the Cassandra syndrome because no one will believe it.
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