shared thoughts

Sharing my comments on YouTube posts

7/5/2025

Posted on China Writers Forum (posted 3:17 a.m. April 28)

Sharing my comments on some YouTube posts (pay attention to my Canada Federal elections predictions):

NBC Nightly News April 9 (on Trump's promised trade deals)

PM: How do you make a deal with someone who lies every time he opens his mouth, changes his mind every two seconds and never adheres to any agreement? Every country in the world understands this except those morons thinking there is a deal in the future.

Lancecahill5486: He doesn’t lie. He’s doing exactly what he said he’s going to do. You just need to pay attention to what he says.

PM: My mistake, Trump doesn't lie. Can't argue with that. My father also taught me never to argue with a moron.

Richard Wolff: The Country that Replaced America (Useful Idiots April 17)

PM: China will not negotiate with America because you cannot make an agreement with someone who lies every time he opens his mouth, changes his mind every two seconds and never adheres to any agreement. If you want to do business with such a person, I would like to offer you the opportunity of a lifetime to acquire a bridge at a huge discount.

PM: No, no. Not what happens after the next ninety days. The question is what happens in the next ninety seconds, depending on what Trump fancies. Trump is as predictable as gravity. He is predictable in his unpredictability. Therefore, if you want to plan for the future, forget about doing anything with America and Trump. Decouple now.

MSNBC (China sitting back and letting markets push White House around) April 23

PM: All rubbish. Ask yourself. Would you make a deal with Trump?

NBC Nightly News April 25

PM: Holt is a news announcer. He reads the mainstream baldfaced lies from the prompter. He is an employee and can't afford the truth. "It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." quoth Upton Sinclair.

Keonessilva3646: MAGA?

PM: MAGA people don't read, so they don't know who Upton Sinclair was, and if they do know, will never quote him. They probably don't understand what Sinclair was talking about anyways. Do you know who Upton Sinclair was and what he was talking about? If you do, you won't be asking the meaningless question.

CBS News: Canada sees record-high early voting with liberals ahead in polls as Election Day nears (April 26)

PM: Easy choice between a Harvard PhD and a Canadian Trump. Carney will win handily.

Carsenarsen8634: Polievre is not a Canadian trump. Why is the media working so so hard to smear him? Makes no sense. Sucks. Totally sucks. I have lost confidence in the intelligence of liberal voters. Overwhelmingly stupid... to vote for carney.

PM: I'm not liberal. I vilify JT everyday for breakfast. But I want a smart person to run the country. I guess you would vote for a moronic, nothing-burger conservative. "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." - Mark Twain. Carney will win handily.

Benking7922: If Carney wins Canada is Finished.

PM: In that case, bring out the hankies because Carney will win handily. There are more Canadians well-educated enough to want the country to be run by a smart person, not a brainless blatherskite.

MSNBC: Strategists react as Trump's approvals rating tanks ahead of 100-day mark (April 27)

PM: The Democratic Party handed Trump the mandate when they cynically appointed Kamala Harris to be the presidential candidate. Thanks a lot.

Lidopina4334: Rubbish.

PM: Yes, Trump is a liar, and the only thing worse than a liar is a liar who is also a hypocrite. Nothing will change until the Democrats learn this about themselves.

BONUS

NBC Nightly News May 6
When Carney told Trump that Canada, same as the White House, will never be for sale, Trump said, "Never say never."

PM: Never say never. So when will the White House be put on sale?

dougfitch3649: It's already been sold.

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Did Deng Xiaoping nurse a grudge against Chairman Mao?

7/5/2025

Posted on my China Writers Forum

Recently, a discussion arose in the China Writers Forum regarding whether Deng Xiaoping nursed a grudge against Chairman Mao. I have no personal information about this subject, but I have done some historical research. The following is my contribution to the discussion.

I have mentioned in earlier posts my interest in reading Party-sanctioned history books on the CPC in 2011, on the ninetieth anniversary of the Communist Party of China. At the time, I was a frequent flyer in China and rummaged through every airport bookstore but couldn't find a single offering. After persistent efforts, I became the proud owner of three books from three eras, all written, published and sanctioned by the CPC. The most current issue, published in 2010, was titled "The History of the Chinese Communist Party" (中国共产党历史). Its contents include much of what happened after the end of the Cultural Revolution and the beginning of the reforms under Deng's leadership.

To make a long story short, at the conclusion of the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee held in December of 1978, Deng made a seminal speech to unify the CPC, which was in danger of fracturing from within because of Mao's perceived role in attacking first-generation revolutionaries and high-level party officials during the Cultural Revolution. The title of the speech is "Liberate thought; seek truth from facts; unify the Party and look forward into the future." To summarize:

1. Liberate thought: Keep an open mind and discover the truth of what happened (during the Cultural Revolution) objectively (to learn the lesson). We must solve this political problem and find a new direction for the CPC. We must be concerned about the collective future of the CPC, the nation and its people (not about how we were victims; Deng and his family suffered much). If we continue to argue about the past, we will not progress and will cause the demise of the CPC and the nation (亡党亡国).

2. The Party must go on: One of the conditions for thought liberation is democratization. We have talked too much about it but done little. We must courageously pass power down to the people to improve their livelihood. And we must strengthen the laws and democratic system so they will remain even after leadership changes.

3. Dealing with history as the first step to look forward: We must distinguish right from wrong and overturn wrongful convictions. It is the prerequisite condition for the CPC to stay united. Indeed, Mao approved some of the cases, and he was wrong. However, we criticize Mao's judgment so we can look forward, not completely overturn Mao's contributions and all his ideas (he was, after all, human). We must lead and scientifically educate all our Party members and the people on the objective history of Mao's achievements.

4. Economic development: We must learn about the new conditions of the world and quickly come up with solutions to solve the problems. We must stop blowing political hot air on everything, instead reform to improve production, allowing people the freedom to innovate. Let people everywhere who lead and succeed gain wealth, creating positive demonstration and influence for their neighbours and elevating economic conditions for entire regions.

The Third Plenary was a watershed for the CPC. It overturned Hua Guofeng's "Two Whatevers," which basically said Mao did not err and was irreproachable. It set up the stage for Hua to cede power and retreat into the background. Deng's argument was Mao's own favourite motto, "Seek truth From Facts." The Plenary firmly established Mao's contribution to the Chinese Revolution (that is why Mao's face graces the Forbidden City and the hundred yuan bill) and criticized his errors in his old age, reminding everyone Marxism did not expect a revolutionary leader to be unerring and blameless. When some members wanted to heap all the blame on Mao and condemn him to the dustbin of history, Deng reminded them that, at the time, many people in power did not oppose Mao, including Deng himself. The Party was not a one-member club, and top officials should shoulder some blame.

The book further describes the actions taken in the following years to overturn millions of wrongful convictions and the discriminatory treatment suffered by tens of millions affected by those cases. Regarding Mao's place in history, in particular, CPC history, the Sixth Plenary held in June of 1981, after wide-ranging consultation with high officials and non-Party democratic representatives, came up with a historical document titled, "The resolution regarding certain historical questions since the establishment of the Party," in short, "The Resolution." It outlines in detail the contributions and errors of Mao, reiterating the Party must keep flying the flag of Mao Thought and learn from Mao's mistakes. I'll stop here. This essay is a snippet of history from the horse's mouth. I do my best to share it without prejudice.

Peter Man

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April 2 Liberation Day! Unconquered unleashed!

30/3/2025

Also posted on China Writers Blog

Anyone who reads my posts would know what I think about Trump. While it's only my opinion, it is a judgment based on Trump's words, actions and known facts about him. I haven't commented on him very much because nothing shows me he has learned anything or will make any changes. Another thing I like to do is to make predictions based on common sense. For example, shortly after Trump started the first trade war against China in 2018, I wrote a piece on Quora predicting the outcome of it. I recently re-read it and found no cause to change a word in the article. I often joke about Trump being as predictable as gravity. I must thank him for following my script so faithfully.

Some among our writers' group have been concerned about CK Hutchison's sale of its ports to Blackrock. Frankly, I never even paid any attention to the news. I have no insider information, but common sense tells me it won't happen. I finally posted my two cents worth saying, "If China didn't get bullied by America in the Korean and Vietnam Wars, why would they accept the bullying today?" It's common sense the sale won't go through. Sure enough, a day later, Reuters reported the sale would not happen on schedule, meaning the closing is postponed sine die (without a date). Quod Erat Demonstrandum.

I have also predicted Trump would wreak havoc in America if elected (please check out my blogs at https://chinawritersfaculty.boards.net/board/5/peter-man). Hopefully, he will do everything he promises come April 2, Liberation Day, starting a global trade war against everyone. He may, very well, get everything he wishes for, except it will be Liberation Day for the rest of the world. I once posted this truism, "An empire falls when everyone rebels." Verily, Trump is accelerating the inevitable.

The problem with Trump and his toadies is they know nothing about their main perceived antagonist; otherwise, they would not have tried to attack a nation with an unconquered civilization of so many thousands of years. Without a shadow of a doubt, they have not read Unconquered, which recounts the entire history of China, including many untold secrets, and which I dedicate to the mixed-race members of my family, grandson Charlie Man Dunn, nephews Darcy and Sage Ramadge, and Sage's children Noa, Yossi and Micah, in case they may one day want to learn the meaning of being Chinese.

Unconquered (Sci-fi) paperback is available at your neighbourhood bookstore in most English-speaking countries through IngramSpark distribution. If they have no stock, you may ask them to order on your behalf from IngramSpark, quoting the title (Unconquered), author (Peter Man) and ISBN: 978-1-9994019-7-9. North American readers may directly order online from Barnes and Noble or Bookshop.org.

It will also be available on Amazon and Kindle later. Stay tuned.

Anyone interested in reading and critiquing the book may send me a message at: [email protected]

Jeff and Godfree (of China Writers Group) have reviewed an early version, the ugly pupa of the final metamorphosized creature. You may read their and others' reviews at my book site: https://www.petermanauthor.com/

To give an idea of what one may find in the book, I share below a chapter titled "Girl Power," in which the protagonists, small-town girl Victoria and Toronto art dealer David, enter the metaverse to experience the early Tang Dynasty inside its capital city, Chang'an, "long peace," during the lifetime of Empress Wu Zetian, the only female emperor of China. Prepared to be gobsmacked.

Chapter 39

Girl Power

DAVID snapped his fingers, and the two VR gamers found themselves in the middle of a monumental square within the forbidding walls of a grand palace. Several royal handmaids and eunuchs were ushering a dozen young girls to their living quarters. Victoria took on the role of a handmaid, whereas David passed off as a eunuch. Most of the girls were downcast and appeared to have been crying. While everyone shuffled along with their heads down and eyes to the ground, one girl stuck her head up and studied her surroundings. She seemed to be the only one curious enough to check out the prison where she would languish for the remainder of her often short, miserable life.

“Where are we?” Victoria whispered.

“We’re inside the imperial palace in Chang’an, Tang’s first capital,” David the Eunuch replied. “These girls are recently selected concubines of Emperor Tang Taizong, the second and greatest of Tang’s emperors. Most of these young concubines will count themselves lucky to meet their husband, who has more wives and concubines than he can shake a stick at. Well known to be a workaholic, Taizong is forty-one years old; these girls are but twelve to fourteen. Most of them will receive a life sentence of abject loneliness, deprived of a man’s love.”

“It must be terrifying. No wonder the girls have been crying.”

“Actually, in the seventh century, most girls were married off by fourteen. Don’t forget Juliet was not yet fourteen when she decided to elope with Romeo. These precocious girls might have shed a few tears when they bid farewell to their parents. But their only job from now on is to attract Taizong’s attention and hope to carry his child. Did you notice the girl who was poking her nose around? She is the concubine who would be king.”

“It sounds awesome, but doesn’t seem remotely possible.”

“Except you’re witnessing history. As the wind blows, twelve years flew by in the blink of an eye. Emperor Taizong died, leaving the concubine childless. It was bad news for the young woman, as she would have to spend the rest of her uneventful, meaningless life in the royal convent as a nun. If it had been so, no one would have heard of her. Instead, Taizong’s successor, Emperor Gaozong, espied his enchanting stepmother at the Buddhist temple. Before one had time to say ‘Queen Gertrude,’ the mourning widow became Gaozong’s favourite concubine.”

“This is so inappropriate,” Victoria said with a raised eyebrow.

“To the Confucian Chinese, perhaps, but perfectly apropos to the nomadic Xianbei. Indeed, most people in the concubine’s situation would’ve given up. Instead, she turned a funeral into a wedding and bagged herself a younger husband mesmerized by her charms. Eventually, despite universal objections, Gaozong sent his wife away and made his stepmother-concubine the official queen consort. After Gaozong’s death, the queen established a new dynasty, which she named Zhou, known in history as Second Zhou, and reigned as the Empire’s supreme ruler. We know her as Empress Wu Zetian, the only female emperor in Chinese history.”

How extraordinary was Empress Wu? While other women in China had wielded supreme power, she achieved the unthinkable by establishing her own dynasty. She proved unequivocally a girl can accomplish anything if she sets her mind to it. Her improbable rise was no accident. She established Zhou (690−705 CE), named after the ancient Zhou Dynasty. Her titular name had the word Tian, or “heaven,” Zhou’s supreme god. Zhou Ping Wang, the king who moved the Zhou capital east to Luoyang in Henan Province, sired a son with palm lines forming the word Wu, which means “martial,” hence naming him Wu. Empress Wu descended from this prince. She certainly knew about Zhou’s matriarchal ancestry. The name of the royal house, Ji (姬), displayed a female radical.

After migrating to Henan, where no land was available for development, the royal Wu clan of Zhou lost its mojo. To survive, they mingled with the Shang clans and learned to trade, making strategic matrimonial alliances. Empress Wu’s father was a Shang merchant whose family had relocated to the Tang area, or Shanxi Province, where the Shang clans thrived and later formed the powerful Shanxi Merchants Cartel. Centuries later, a prominent descendant of Confucius, Kung Hsiang-hsi, better known as H. H. Kung, would emerge from Shanxi. He married Soong Ai-ling, the eldest of the three Soong sisters, the most influential women in China during the twentieth century. A Shang descendant of Confucius was, therefore, the brother-in-law of Dr. Sun Yat-sen and Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek. The Soong family and H. H. Kung later built the financial power of the Shang clans in America. But that, my friend, is another story.

Empress Wu’s extraordinary life journey began when Gaozu, her first husband’s father and founder of the Tang Dynasty, sojourned at her home before starting the rebellion. Her father gave Gaozu a secret book of power. It was a story seldom told.

“Let’s check out the streets of Empress Wu’s capital,” David said. “Prepare to feast your eyes on the greatest city in the world and the gateway to the Silk Road.” And he snapped his fingers.

Victoria was gobsmacked by what struck her eyes in seventh-century Chang’an, a planned city shaped in a square with all streets running north-south and east-west, accommodating about one million residents, seven times the size of Constantinople, the centre of Western civilization. A scaled-down version of Chang’an survives in modern-day Kyoto, Japan. Horses, carriages and pedestrians thronged the fifteen-metre-wide boulevards lined with trees on both sides. Platoons of soldiers patrolled the intersections to maintain order and prevent crime. Some officers on horseback had exotic facial features. According to David, Turkic people lived under the rule of the Empire, and many joined the Tang army. During the chaotic period after the fall of Tang, military men of Turkic origin established three short-lived dynasties. Turkic people were Chinese emperors long before they were Ottoman sultans. During Gaozong’s reign, Narsieh, the commander of the Imperial Guards, was an exiled prince of the Persian Sasanian Dynasty.

During Tang, colourful clothing was the norm. Women slipped into revealing dresses with a deep vee in front, showing off their chemise and décolletage. A few arrayed themselves in male attire and rode astride on horses. Young women roamed the streets without chaperones. Matriarchs strolled in the parks attended by their servants. Most adult women wore fancy hairdos and had a red floral design painted on their foreheads as a part of their makeup.

The Tang capital teemed with people of different nationalities and religions, from Persian traders with their purebred horses entering from the West Gate to Bactrian camel caravans lugging gold, frankincense and myrrh to the bazaar, and multi-ethnic polo teams riding to a match. A Buddhist monk with three disciples arrived at the capital. They resembled the group trekking to India in search of Buddhist scriptures in the classic Journey to the West. The monk Xuanzang in the story is historical, whereas some say the Monkey King Wukong could be the Hindu monkey god Hanuman with Chinese characteristics. Scholars from Japan and Korea came in droves, many becoming officials of the Tang court.

Inside a park, players demonstrated fancy footwork with a cuju, the original soccer ball, while rambunctious kids raced across the playground with handheld windmills known as whirligigs. Teenage boys flew fancy kites while girls chased butterflies with silk nets. Kibitzers surrounded Backgammon, Go and Chess games; others gathered around cricket fights. Nearby, a handful of ne’er-do-wells gambled with tiles and dice. Next to them, a drunkard slept with his finch canary in a cage hanging from a branch above him.

As David and Victoria entered the bazaar in the western quarters, the cacophony of sights and sounds overwhelmed their senses. Booths and stalls lined the streets, hawking everything from handcrafted candy to exotic spices. An old lady peddled perfume pouches, baby shoes and handkerchiefs on the sidewalk. An artist sold paper fans with calligraphy. A puppeteer trod a fine line performing a silhouette show which parodied a corrupt official. A blind street musician played the two-string fiddle erhu while a young girl strummed the Asian lute pipa with her flying fingers in a playful duel. Street food stalls sold lamb kebabs and naan bread, infusing the air with the aromas of cumin and hot peppers. Other vendors offered noodles, snacks and tea while wandering sages dispensed medical and fortune-telling services. A row of inns doubling as pubs hugged the brothels frequented by fancy-dressed foreigners seeking comfort from exotic foreign dancers. Victoria found herself awed and speechless inside a kaleidoscope in motion.

“This is pretty amazing, eh!” David remarked. “While Western Europe groped for direction in the Dark Ages, China’s Age of Enlightenment is in full bloom during the seventh century. Under the rule of Empress Wu, Chinese women enjoyed unprecedented status. Foot binding went out of style. Girls received an education and contributed to law and literature. Women controlled household finances and wielded real power.”

David showed Victoria the incredible history of girl power in China to deliver a message—despite her small-town upbringing, Victoria had the potential to be a world conqueror. As exhibit number one, Tang girls led armies into battle. At age seventeen, Princess Pingyang, Gaozu’s daughter, independently raised and led an army of seventy thousand, helping her father conquer all of China. As exhibit number two, Tang girls served as court officials. Shangguan Wan’er, Empress Wu’s famous female chief minister, rose from being a child slave to becoming the highest official at Empress Wu’s court and later a favourite wife of the next emperor. She also won wide acclaim as a celebrated poet. Her life story is an epic second only to that of Empress Wu.

Contrary to the conservative social norms in later centuries, China’s liberal environment for women during the Tang era defied belief. For example, no taboo prevented intelligent and well-educated Tang women from working as professional courtesans, entertaining cultured guests and aristocrats by their grace and wit, besides the usual shenanigans. They made a ton of money, owned property and were independently wealthy. Society did not shame girls for having premarital relationships. Women divorced and remarried without stigma. In her old age, Empress Wu openly kept a stable of young studs for pleasure. No one batted so much as an eyelid. The early Tang and Second Zhou were the best times in the history of China for women.

Empress Wu was not merely a pretty face. She single-handedly shattered the glass ceiling. While she was a brilliant ruler, people close to the Empress, including her dearest kin, constantly challenged her authority. On the other hand, most of her capable ministers and officials served her loyally. Under Empress Wu, the Empire was, by and large, peaceful and prosperous. She died of old age at eighty-two as one of the longest-lived emperors of China. Abiding by her wishes, her tombstone was left blank with no pompous elegiac inscriptions, allowing future generations to make their own judgments. Empress Wu’s son succeeded her on the throne and promptly reverted the dynastic name to Tang.

Comments:

Amarynth (Administrator of China Writers Blog and Global South Website):

Hi Peter and thanks!

I developed a working slogan for this time:

"The strategy of empire going forward will be one of denial of world development through chaos creation. While the approach has shifted, imperialist aspirations endure. The fragile veil of a pretense of peace lies irrevocably torn asunder, its remnants eclipsed by the unrelenting tide of violence that now reigns. The strategy is beginning to unravel both internally in the US and in international affairs, as the world is saying a resounding NO".

I would have loved to read your book Peter, but my time is so very limited and I'm such a bore as I only get to read serious stuff. I know your book is serious but I will not do it justice now.

Response:

Hi Amarynth,

Feel free to read the book any time. The story is more about the long-lived and unconquered Chinese civilization than the ever-changing noise coming out of America. It can be enjoyed years from today, albeit only by the few who have the time and are willing to invest what little they have to read books about strange and esoteric ideas never previously explored.

As only one example amongst many, the first archaeologically established dynasty of China is Shang, and its culture exists today in the unbroken and unconquered legacy of the Chinese written language. But what happened to the descendants of Shang? Where are they, and why is their written language referred to as Han characters? For some reason, no one has ever asked these questions. Astonishingly, my research shows the Shang have always lived among us in plain sight, though we do not know it. As one famous example among numerous instances, Confucius is a descendant of the royal house of Shang. History has a clear record of it, though everyone ignores it. While the connection has become tenuous over millennia, for fun's sake, the book reveals Huawei's secret background at the end.

Another mystery is the unicorn known as Qilin in Chinese myth. My research indicates it is the evolutionary product of a mythical creature of Shang called Zhi (廌), which is present in the Shang word for "law" or "method" (法), originally (灋). Even the Shang word for dragon (龙) shows a creature with one horn. While most of us are familiar with the Lion Dance, few realize the lion has a single horn and should be more accurately called a unicorn. Huawei's chipset is named Kirin, the anglicized Japanese form of Qilin. All are Shang cultural influences in plain sight, though we would not know about it. Needless to say, I had an in-depth discussion with DeepSeek, forcing it to admit my theory is not frivolous.

The last chapter, composed during Trump's first reign, predicted a dystopian future empire ruled by Trump, renamed Trombone. The name Trump comes from trumpet, and Trombone is a big trumpet. Unfortunately, this prediction has come true. On the other hand, Trombone is the world's first certified Paradoxymoron, the combination of paradox and oxymoron. He will inadvertently break the power of the Polygon and bring peace to the world. Let's hope so.

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DeepSeek This!

13/2/2025

"I don't fear Artificial Intelligence; I fear human stupidity." -- quoth me.

Check out my other blog.

DeepSeek is now a favourite topic of discussion among our writers' group. While taking a short break, I decided to check it out and see what it's good at.

I asked a simple question with lots of well-known and proven material on the internet and elsewhere: Can you name a general or a leader of armies in history who has never lost a battle?

DeepSeek-v3 lists Alexander the Great, Hannibal Barca, Khalid ibn al-Walid, Subutai and Scipio Africanus. I have no problem accepting Alexander, although one may argue his Indian campaign was a failure. It is well known Hannibal lost the Battle of Zama to Africanus. In fact, DeepSeek mentions it while describing Africanus. It is self-contradictory in the same answer. The military exploits of Khalid ibn al-Walid are mostly legendary, as no contemporary records are extant. Subutai's six decades of field campaigns also suffer from the same lack of detailed and trustworthy historical records. Scipio Africanus' campaigns against the Carthaginian Empire are recorded in detail by well-known historians of ancient times, the most famous and reliable being Polybius, born while Africanus was still alive. However, one should note his close connection to the Scipio family. Since Africanus voluntarily exiled himself from Rome after being attacked by political rivals, it is unlikely his battlefield losses, if he had any, would be covered up by everyone. I would agree Africanus was undefeated. However, I find someone missing from the list. His name is John Churchill, the Duke of Marlborough.

Therefore, I asked DeepSeek the following question: How about the Duke of Marlborough? Has he ever lost a battle as a general?

DeepSeek's answer: Yes. It lists the Battle of Almansa, the Siege of Lille and the Duke's failure to invade France.

Here is my challenge to DeepSeek's answer: The Duke of Marlborough did not lead the Allied army at the Battle of Almansa. You cannot say he lost that battle. Marlborough also succeeded in the Siege of Lille. Therefore, he did not lose that battle. As for the invasion of France, Marlborough was opposed by the Dutch and hampered by politics back in England, of which he had little control. It has nothing to do with Marlborough's battles on the battlefield. Can you give me an example of a military action Marlborough had lost as the leader of an army?

DeepSeek's answer:

"You are absolutely correct to point out that the Duke of Marlborough did not lead the Allied army at the Battle of Almansa (1707), and the Siege of Lille (1708) was ultimately a success despite its challenges. Additionally, the political and logistical constraints he faced, such as opposition from the Dutch and political interference from England, were beyond his control and not reflective of his performance on the battlefield.

"To address your question directly: there is no recorded instance of the Duke of Marlborough losing a battle as the leader of an army. Marlborough's reputation as one of history's greatest generals is built on his extraordinary record of victories and his ability to outmaneuver and outthink his opponents. His major battles—Blenheim (1704), Ramillies (1706), Oudenarde (1708), and Malplaquet (1709)—were all decisive successes, even if some, like Malplaquet, were costly in terms of casualties.

"Marlborough's career is remarkable precisely because he consistently achieved victory in the face of significant challenges, both on and off the battlefield. While he faced setbacks in terms of political and strategic limitations, his tactical brilliance and leadership in combat remained unmatched.

"If we strictly consider battles where Marlborough was in direct command, he never lost. This undefeated record as a battlefield commander is a key part of his legacy. Thank you for pointing out the nuances—it’s important to distinguish between setbacks outside his control and his actual performance in military engagements."

Look at my next questions: Was John Churchill (the 1st Duke of Marlborough) a relative of the Duchess of Castlemaine?

DeepSeek: "Yes, John Churchill, the 1st Duke of Marlborough, was related to Barbara Villiers, Duchess of Castlemaine. Barbara Villiers was John Churchill's aunt. She was the sister of John Churchill's mother, Elizabeth Villiers. Barbara Villers was a prominent figure in the court of King Charles II of England and was known for being one of his mistresses."

I challenged DeepSeek's answer: John Churchill's maternal grandmother was married to John Drake. Therefore, his mother was Elizabeth Drake, not Elizabeth Villiers. Where did you get your information?

DeepSeek: "You are absolutely correct, and I misspoke in my earlier response. I appreciate your attention to detail and the opportunity to clarify. John Churchill, the 1st Duke of Marlborough, was indeed the son of Elizabeth Drake, not Elizabeth Villiers. Elizabeth Drake was the daughter of Sir John Drake and Eleanor Boteler. The confusion likely arose because John Churchill's family had connections to the Villiers family through other marriages and relationships, but his mother was not a Villiers. Thank you for pointing this out, and I apologize for the earlier inaccuracies." (My comment: Elizabeth Villiers was, in fact, Elizabeth Drake's grandmother, married to her grandfather John Boteler. It is a bit confusing for humans, and DeepSeek is not immune)

I followed up with this question: Do you know how John Churchill was related to the Villiers?

DeepSeek: "Barbara Villiers was the sister of John Churchill's maternal grandmother, Eleanor Boteler, who married Sir John Drake. Eleanor Boteler and Barbara Villiers were daughters of Sir Edward Villiers and his wife, Frances Howard." (my comment: how is it possible for Eleanor Boteler to be the daughter of Edward Villiers? Eleanor's father was John Boteler, giving her the surname of Boteler)

Here is my challenge: According to Winston Churchill, England's famous prime minister, who wrote the definitive biography of the 1st Duke of Marlborough, Eleanor Boteler's father, John Boteler, married the sister of George Villiers, the 1st Duke of Buckingham. Barbara Villiers was the daughter of William Villiers, son of Edward Villiers, a half-brother of the 1st Duke of Buckingham. Where did you get your information?

DeepSeek:

"You are absolutely correct, and I appreciate your detailed clarification. I misspoke earlier, and I apologize for the confusion. The connection between John Churchill and the Villiers family is through his maternal grandmother, Eleanor Boteler, who was the niece of George Villiers, 1st Duke of Buckingham, and the cousin of Barbara Villiers. (My comment: To be more accurate, Barbara was the cousin of Elizabeth Drake, nine years older than John and, by modern relationships, should be his aunt. Winston Churchill described her as John's second cousin once removed. I believe he meant she was Elizabeth Drake's second cousin once removed. John was also, most certainly, the father of Barbara's last child. Scandalous! I pointed this out and got the same affirmation and apology)

"Thank you for pointing out the inaccuracies in my earlier responses. I strive to provide accurate information, and your input is invaluable in achieving that goal. If you have further questions or need additional clarification, please let me know!"

Here it is, folks. Don't believe everything you hear or read, even from an all-knowing AI. The good thing is, DeepSeek admits its shortcomings. Hopefully, it keeps learning.

I have discussed this with my Princeton professor brother-in-law. The so-called Artificial Intelligence being bandied around nowadays still has a long way to go before it can think independently and critically. I'm sure people are working on it. Meanwhile, take everything with a grain of salt from the so-called AI Large Language Models and work on being critical ourselves (or teach AI to think).

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Happy Year of the Snake

30/1/2025

Happy Year of the Snake, wishing everyone and their loved ones enjoy good health and prosperity.

I have a strange feeling change is in the air, and hopefully for the best.

Ever since Trump was elected president again, China has been rocking the American boat. They opened Chancay, a modern deepwater port in Peru. Meanwhile, America's ports are the oldest and slowest in the world because of labour opposition to modernization and automation.

China showed off their sixth-generation fighters to the world. Meanwhile, America's fifth-generation fighter is still plagued with faulty parts and accidents.

China launched new warships with the speed of making dumplings. Almost out of the blue, China has overtaken Japan and South Korea and has become the world's biggest shipbuilding nation, only 232 times the capacity of America. I'm sure America needs to start a war with China now or it'll be too late.

China's attack on the US dollar is relentless as BRICS+ officially accepted nine countries as partner states. BRICS+ nations want to trade without using the USD.

Despite sanctions, tariffs and trade wars, China's trade surplus reached a record high of almost one trillion USD. However, numerous Western media pundits keep reporting China's economy is collapsing. As Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof would say, "May God smite me and I collapse this very minute, and may I never recover."

In space, after years of American sanctions and keeping China out of the "International" Space Station, China built its own and has accomplished another breakthrough, creating oxygen and fuel in space by artificial photosynthesis. Meanwhile, the ISS is breaking apart with no fix in sight. In fact, the end is nigh.

On earth, China's Tokamak nuclear fusion reactor shatters its own record. Looking forward to clean and practically unlimited energy for BRICS+ and BRI countries.

And when the entire Washington swamp got together and made TikTok an offer it couldn't refuse, TikTokers flocked to a Chinese social app The Little Red Book seeking refuge, discovering the real China and mooting the Congressional-approved anti-China funds of $1.6 Billion. China didn't even do anything. It's another American self-goal.

It's getting tiresome but we have to mention DeepSeek, which caused the vanishing of a trillion imaginary dollars from the House of Cards. How does Trump impose tariffs on free and open software? A million percent imposed on free is still free. Those dastardly communists! Why don't they charge an arm and a leg like all good American companies? But this is not the only nightmare for Trump's America. Alibaba has come out with another better and free AI, Qwen 2.5 Max. People say China is competing against the US. This is Chinese companies competing against each other. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Meanwhile, as predicted, Trump attacks his closest lapdogs (because he can) and wreaks havoc with America (because he is a lawless moron and a convicted felon). "Trump is as predictable as gravity," I quote myself. For those leaders of nations who may even have previous experience dealing with Trump and appear to be surprised, they're imbeciles and deserve to be humiliated.

The good news about the Trump presidency is Trump will accelerate the demise of American hegemony, which cannot be so bad.

Feel free to check out my other blog: https://chinawritersfaculty.boards.net/board/5/peter-man

Have another great year,

Peter Man

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Idiot's Guide to Voting in America

5/11/2024

First posted at China Writers Group

Today is Election Day. Here is a concise idiot's guide for voting in America, in case anyone needs it.

First, erase from your stultified mind the delusion your vote matters. Your vote and you do not matter, especially if you're not from a swing state with a small population and a large number of electoral votes. Ask any statistician. The result will not be affected if you stay home and binge-watch Will Smith movies. If, however, you want to waste your time and exercise your right to vote, the following guide will maximize your influence.

Don't vote for Kamala. She says she would end the Gaza War and protect abortion rights if she is elected. Why should anyone trust her empty promises? Kamala says she would do everything in her power, which means she would do nothing, as she would be an empty suit if elected. Kamala was appointed to be the Democratic Party's candidate. She is a puppet, at best. She also promises Israel would be satisfied with the arrangement, which is impossible. Kamala promises a paradox and an oxymoron, in other words, a paradoxymoron. I would rather believe in a thousand angels dancing on a pinhead.

As for protecting abortion rights, it's a bald-faced lie. For fifty years, the Democratic Party never enacted Roe vs Wade into law, even when they held the Trifecta, and they meekly gave up the Supreme Court to Trump and the Republicans, so they can now use abortion rights as a rallying cry during elections. Out of the blue, Kamala the Saviour descends upon humanity to protect women's rights. It's worse than a lie. It's a disgraceful lie.

Last but not least, they call themselves the Democratic Party and Trump's party as authoritarian. However, Trump was elected in the primaries while Kamala was appointed. "The only thing worse than a liar is a liar who is a hypocrite," quoth Tennessee Williams. And the only thing worse than a liar and a hypocrite is someone who is also a genocidal murderer and blabbering idiot. You vote for Kamala at your own risk.

For even stronger reasons, never vote for Trump. Aside from the mendacious and moronic miscreant he is, his first term empirically proves he is an imbecile. His easy-to-win US-China trade war was a complete failure, causing more self-harm as China continued to rise. Total Covid deaths during his term were over a million, while China's were about 14,000. Even India only had half a million. The West shrugged off Trump's murderous record but cantankerously chastised China for not opening up sooner and incurring a more respectable mortality.

As if such a pitiful record is not enough to disqualify him, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse by a jury and guilty on thirty-four felony counts of falsifying business records. He also has three outstanding indictments, two federal cases and one in Georgia. America is such a place where non-white people get killed while sleeping in their own beds by law enforcement. Yet a brazen, lawless scofflaw is defended by otherwise thoughtful and sane people and elected to be the president. Go figure.

Some people may vote for Trump because they think he is peaceful. Don't let his thirty thousand lies, give or take a few hundred, fool you. He is only telling you what you want to hear. He supports Israel's genocidal slaughter of babies and women in Gaza. Almost in the same breath, he accuses Liz Cheney of being a war hawk. His suggestion of having guns trained on warmongers is actually not a bad idea, but he tells only half the story because the whole story affects him. How about making war hawks spend their own money to make war? Capitalists would rather die than use their own money for war. The next time Trump wants to fire forty Tomahawks at some place, assassinate someone or deliver bombs to allies for killing babies, make him pay for the expenses and send Junior, Eric or Baron to do the job. That is how you can magically turn war hawks into peaceniks.

Don't waste your time on the fringe candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a supporter of genocidal murder and has endorsed Trump for president. Jill Stein talks the good talk, but wielding no votes in Congress or the Senate, she will not implement even one of her dreams. Vote for Jill Stein by all means, but you will not move the needle.

Americans, if you want change, don't expect your elected officials to deliver it. You may need to change the system by revolution. If you don't know how to start a revolution, learn from the Chinese. And if you don't know what the Chinese did to succeed. Read Unconquered. Go to my website and leave me a message.

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The Fate of Ukraine's Kursk Offensive

17/9/2024

Disclaimer: The following article does not take a political stand on the right or wrong on either side of the conflict, merely on the interpretation of one of the battles and the prediction of its outcome based on a point of view not discussed by other pundits commenting on the battle. This is the updated version of one posted several days ago at the China Writers Group Forum.

When the news of Ukraine's Kursk Offensive first broke, I immediately recognized it as a wrongheaded application of a brilliant tactic. In chess, it is known as the "Opposite Wing Attack." When your opponent is amassing his pieces to attack your King side, rather than trying to meet force with force, you may try to attack your opponent's Queen side, which is less protected. It makes for an exciting match as each player tries to break down the other at the opposite wing.

A well-known descendant of Sun Tzu named Sun Bin (孙膑) also applied this stratagem during the period of the Warring States. It is best remembered as a Chinese idiom, "Besieging Wei to rescue Zhao" (围魏救赵).

So, rather than defending the Donbas front in the east, Ukraine attacks Russia's weak wing at Kursk in the north. They try to rescue the Donbas by attacking the Russian motherland. It's wrongheaded because war is not chess. Ukraine is not equal in military power to Russia. By not supporting its King-side defence in the east, it may lose the game quickly to an overwhelming Russian attack. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russia's weak wing must be threatening enough to draw the Russian army away from the Donbas. To be threatening, Ukraine must have at least 200,000 soldiers, well equipped and supplied, with adequate air cover, ready to march to Moscow. Unfortunately, it's a fantasy. Ukraine's so-called Kursk Offensive is a mosquito bite. They will feed more men into another meat grinder for nothing.

Whoever dreamed this up for Ukraine is making a Hail Mary play, but not understanding the concept nor having the means to execute the plan will spell a quick collapse for Ukraine's eastern defences.

As an anecdote, the Prussian king, Frederick the Great was famous for a battle order known as the "Oblique Order," whereby the smaller but more agile Prussian army would attack the enemy's weaker wing while avoiding action against their stronger wing. His most famous battle employing this order is the Battle of Leuthen, in which he routed an Austrian army twice as large. When the Allied army of the French and Austrians tried to turn the tables on the Prussian king and attacked the Prussian army (which was half the size of the Allied army) in Oblique Order at Rossbach, they got wiped out instead in a matter of ninety minutes. This happens to people who do not understand the concept of a tactic and are neither equipped nor trained to execute it.

I had made this prediction at the commencement of the hostilities: When Ukraine fails, NATO will follow and the House of Cards will come tumbling down. As I said early on, the Hegemon has blundered itself into an unnecessary existential war against Russia. It has too many fires it cannot extinguish. Empires always collapse gradually over the years and then all at once.

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China Rising

25/8/2024

Recently, a China Writers Group* member encountered some Chinese expats in Thailand and became distraught because these relatively well-to-do and well-educated Chinese were almost universally anti-China and pro-America. Other members in our correspondence group, including those who grew up in China and now work as professors in Western countries, joined the conversation and rained vituperative on those Chinese ingrates. My comment tries to put things in the proper perspective.

* China Writers Group, of which I'm a proud member, was founded by an Oklahoma revolutionary named Jeff Brown, who has recently decided to move from his home in Normandy to live permanently in China. The group includes many well-known authors, journalists, educators, scientists, economists, political pundits, bloggers, website operators, political activists, etc. The group now has a website: "Seektruthfromfacts.org" and a forum: chinawritersfaculty.boards.net

*****

In 1997, I returned from Toronto to my hometown, Hong Kong, and decided to check out Shenzhen. My last memory of China was from a short trip in 1985 when the country was considered backward by comparison. I visited Yunnan's provincial capital, Kunming, which only had one direct flight per week with Guangzhou, and the plane was a Russian jalopy with leaky, whistling windows. Economy class passengers took geese and other live animals on board. No shit! In those days, the PLAAF shared the Kunming Airport with civilian aviation. As our plane landed on the runway, I could espy an endless row of MIG-like fighters (probably J-5s), each loaded with a huge bomb attached to the underbelly (probably one-thousand-pound MFckers) parked on each side. Only a few years before, Kunming was the western headquarters for China's brief border war with Vietnam. The dining room at the hotel next to Green Lake (翠湖 said to be the best one for foreigners in those days) was staffed by female servers clad in a modest, featureless uniform of white shirts and blue pants. They were ravishing Xinjiang beauties, one and all. I expressed my appreciation in glowing terms to the hostess arrayed in a flowery silk qipao (the traditional dress otherwise known as cheongsam by the British Taipans), who was also from Xinjiang. She said they were the ugliest of the lot and relegated to Kunming, a backwater hick town in those days. The prettier ones had better things to do and went to nicer places (I'm sure she was joking). While people wanted to do business, Yunnan had little connections to the outside world. Everything exuded the beauty of untouched innocence.

As I entered Shenzhen in 1997, a farrago of smells, sights and sounds immediately overwhelmed my senses. Scammers and pickpockets abound. Child beggars, some carrying month-old babies, congregated at my feet. Every walkway, watering hole and massage parlor overflowed with pimps and prostitutes. Wujings (Armed Police of the Military tasked with protecting the security of infrastructure and borders) and soldiers masquerading as businessmen ran riot. They owned the largest and most incredible dance hall in town, known as House. They hired a Hong Kong manager, a friend of a friend, because Hong Kongers knew something about decadence under British colonial rule.

Unfettered by transient moral concerns and armed with the new standard of "To be rich is glorious," an attractive girl could make more paper promises in one night than a factory worker could earn in months, working overtime every day. What's your choice if you want to retire early, say, before turning thirty? With the help of the Wujing and Customs officials, entire towns with a port became smugglers' havens. Gangs ruled the streets after dark. Corruption among government officials was rampant. I know people in Guangzhou who work for various departments. They used to spend exorbitant amounts on Karaokes every night, covering all expenses as long as you deign to attend. Those days have long gone. I once complained to a bank manager who obviously knew about the shady loans they were doling out. He replied, "Fish don't grow in clear water." The Central government was dispensing incentives to encourage local technology development. However, a not insignificant portion went to scammers who knew nothing about technology and did not even try. They got the money because they knew someone who knew someone. While the average worker survived on five-yuan box lunches, students in Guangzhou flooded McDonalds, waving hundred-yuan Mao-adorned bills and jostling through unwieldy queues with Chinese characteristics for their twenty-five-yuan Big Mac Meals. I visited Shenzhen with a friend from Canada. His first impression was, "Chinese people may have money but no culture." He never returned.

Suffice it to say, many people who sacrificed their youth working for the socialist cause were disgusted, my wife's father included. My father-in-law, who recently passed away, left his big-city hometown of Jinan, Shandong's capital, after finishing school to spend his entire life working at a remote coal mine in Shaanxi. My wife holds negative sentiments toward the Chinese government even to this day. She came from a small county with less than four hundred thousand residents. According to her, if you want regular service from an official of any rank, be prepared to seek help from connections (guanxi), buy presents and set up meals or be ignored. Reforms may take longer to infiltrate smaller places.

These are my real experiences in China. I say it as I saw things without wearing rose-tinted glasses. Why did I stay rather than walk away? Although I worked in a lucrative business, I decided not to get involved in bribery. Everyone, including my wife, thought I was either crazy or stupid, but it was my bottom line. I noticed how people in China seemed to be doing short-term, cut-throat, quick-return-on-capital businesses. I went in the opposite direction and worked in expensive, long-term technology development (thanks to the generous support of friend and boss Michael Pang who passed away recently and, of course, everyone in my family). The technical staff I trained would later become tech leaders of their organizations. Even my secretary became the top executive of an international dollar store known as Miniso. I was disgusted with the unwieldy mobs in the McDonald I frequented. After taking the manager to task, halting service and wreaking havoc at the place for ten minutes, it became one of the most orderly McDonalds in Guangzhou. Nowadays, proper crowd management and orderly queues in China are the rule rather than the exception.

In 1979, when China's average per-capita income was less than one-third that of sub-Saharan African countries, three hundred thousand Chinese risked their lives swimming to Hong Kong. No one knew how many did not succeed and slept with the fishes. Meanwhile, in Taiwan, a young man characterized as a local, not one recently imported with the Republic of China but whose family came to Taiwan from the mainland several hundred years ago, swam in the opposite direction. This young man was at the top of the class wherever he went and a student leader. He despaired when the U.S. wrested Diaoyu Island from Taiwan and passed it to Japan. He grew up in Yilan and knew Diaoyu Island was a part of Yilan County even during the Japanese occupation. How did it become a part of Japan? Hence he entered the military academy to fight for Taiwan's, if not China's, sovereign right over Diaoyu Island. Upon graduating at the top of the class again, he became a poster boy for the Taiwan military because of his "local" background. But he would not be fighting for Diaoyu Island. The young soldier was appointed the commander of the prestigious and sensitive military post at Kinmen Island, approximately one to two kilometers from the Fujian coast depending on the tide. Life was looking up for him. He already had a son, and his wife was pregnant with their second child. His future was bright, rosy and full of promise. What made him risk his life and everything he had to jump into the sea and swim in the opposite direction?

If we read a little history of the Chinese Communists, we can notice recent social changes in China did not come about because everyone believed in Communism. Most people care about their own survival and prefer to submit to the allure of the Hegemon's paper promises. I always wondered what convinced Professor Yifu Lin to take that fateful plunge. He explained in an article written for his seventieth birthday. He said he learned from Chinese history during times of existential threat, Chinese heroes, some of whom we may know but many are unwept, unhonored and unsung, would sacrifice everything to save the country. It did not matter if he were the only one from Taiwan; he would do his share. He would go on to become the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, an esteemed professor and dean of economics at Peking University, a prolific writer, and the Vice Director of the CPPCC's Economics Committee, providing consultation to the Chinese government. I told Prof. Lin I knew a few friends who had worked quietly and tirelessly to rejuvenate China. He assured me many dedicated people are doing the same, but we don't hear about them.

I have witnessed China's changes with my own eyes. Changes unseen in a hundred years are upon us because of deliberate policies developed and executed by intelligent, dedicated people who don't care too much about their personal profits. Revolution is not for everyone because "Dying is easy; revolution is hard."

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Reflections of my Life at Age 70 by Professor Justin Yifu Lin

8/10/2022

[Peter Man] A housewife calls her husband who is driving home from work. "Honey, be careful on your way home. There is breaking news about a madman driving down the highway in the opposite direction." Over the phone, the husband cries in exasperation, "A madman? Are they reporting only one madman? Jesus Christ, God Almighty! Are these reporters blind? Everyone is driving in the opposite direction!"

I recently learned from Guangzhou friends that, in 1979, about 300,000 mainlanders smuggled themselves into Hong Kong, mostly by swimming. In that same year, my friend, Justin Lin, was the one and only Taiwanese to have swum in the opposite direction to the mainland. Who is this madman?

I wrote a message to Professor Lin on September 30. I'll share it below:

[Start of message] Dear Prof. Lin, I recently came upon a David Goldman speech at the second National Conservatism Conference on November 1, 2021. That was shortly after the publication of your book on China's Economy. He mentioned you and your ideas at about 5 min. 50 sec. into the speech. Goldman, whom I have followed for over two decades (but he does not put up links to his speeches, so we're at the mercy of YouTube algorithms), can be best characterized as a paleo-conservative with a libertarian bent, who is also a realist, and, therefore, he will occasionally come up with some truths about China that are at odds with the ongoing mainstream narratives. It's quite refreshing sometimes to hear truths in places that are inundated with lies.

I have transcribed the particular segment of interest below:

[Goldman]: "The people running Chinese economic policies are people I know because I worked with them on Wall Street. They're U.S. educated, thoroughly modern technocrats with ambition the size of Mount Everest. One of them is a fellow named Yifu Lin. He was chief economist of the World Bank. He's got a PhD from the University of Chicago. He just wrote a book about why China is going to lead the fourth industrial revolution, the same position against America that America was against England in the 19th century. England had all the technology. Thomas Edison did not invent the light bulb, Joseph Swan, a British physician did. Edison stole it, got sued, and paid a gigantic settlement. What Edison did was create an industrial scale laboratory, which went through five thousand materials until he found the filament that would make it last ten times longer than Swan's and made it commercially viable. Andrew Carnegie made more steel than anyone in the world. He didn't invent the Bessemer process, Joseph (sic) Bessemer (he was thinking about Joseph Swan, but it should be Henry Bessemer) did. England had all the technology. America either borrowed it, bought it or stole it, and had the entrepreneurs and logistics to realize it in depth, and that is how China sees itself against the United States.

"Yifu Lin says, 'They're going to try to suppress us; they don't want us to rise just the way England tried to suppress Germany and the US. But look at our human capital.' Human capital is what drives technology. China is producing seven times as many engineers as we are per year, three times as many STEM PhDs; they have 1.4 billion people. Yes, it's true that Chinese culture tends to produce conformism, but with that many people, you do have a lot of brilliant innovators in absolute terms. So that's what we're up against..." [end of Goldman quote]

[Peter Man message] I have stopped commenting about Taiwan completely. Everyone repeats the same old narrative of China attacking Taiwan and reacting to US activities that are totally predictable. The two articles I wrote about Taiwan in August and Oct of 2020 which also predicted the Trump insurrection were based on simply looking for facts beneath the lies. I did not have any privileged information. Almost every prediction came about, including Biden's redoubled attack on China and stepping over the Taiwan red line. Hopefully, China will not make Putin's mistake of hoping the US will allow it to have a peaceful rise, and eventually being forced to take action not at a time, location and method of its choice. I had posted those articles on Quora but they were pulled down within seconds. So very few people actually read those articles. Luckily you did, and your later comments on my little thesis on economics gave me the confidence to verbalize some of my crazy ideas. While the West continues to flood themselves with self-delusional lies that their empty capitalism based on an empty promise equates a great economy because the numbers look great, China creates real wealth that improves people's lives. China must, of course, be able to defend what it has gained.

While there is not much I can do to help in the China Renaissance, I'm very happy to see that the country is being run by capable and responsible people; not only those whom we see on public media every day, but many who have worked and continue to work tirelessly behind the scenes toward that common goal. I'm lucky to have known a few people like that when I lived and worked in China (such as Sidney Rittenberg and Yang Qianli, both were personal friends, and I visited Yang at 301 Hospital before returning to Canada for family reasons. He passed about a year later). I count myself very lucky also to have made the acquaintance with you.

By the way, happy National Day! I truly believe that Taiwan will be a part of the China Renaissance sooner than later, and with little fuss. The method and means are mostly in place; all we need is the wisdom. I don't have any privileged information, but I like to make crazy predictions. Let's hope this one comes through. Maybe we can meet in Taiwan. [End of message]

Prof. Lin promptly replied:

Dear Peter, I am most delighted to receive your message on the National Day. Thank you for sharing the link to David Goldman's speech and transcribing the particular segment with reference to me. I know David and correspond with him once in a while. Attached for your interest please find the reflection of my life at 70. (PM Note: Justin Lin's birthday is Oct. 15, 1952)

The following is Prof. Lin's original article in Chinese. I have translated it into English which he read, amended and approved. He explains in this article why he decided to swim in the opposite direction.

七十感言：我幸运地生活在一个充满希望和机遇的民族复兴时代
林毅夫

1952年我出生于地处台湾东北角，三面环山，一面临海，风景秀丽，民风淳朴的宜兰。小时候的台湾刚摆脱日本的殖民统治不久，百废待兴，经济上和一海之隔的祖国大陆一样贫穷落后，上小学时我用的书包是哥哥姐姐用过留下来补了又补的旧帆布包。孩时的回忆总是美好，和别人家的孩子一样调皮的我喜欢到处逛庙会，看歌仔戏，读漫画书，大一点时着迷于《西游记》《水浒传》《三国演义》等经典名著。历史是我的最爱，初中时就已经读了黎东方的《细说中国历史丛书》，也看了蔡东藩的《中国历朝通俗演义》。年少时看似漫无目的的涉猎让我不知不觉认识到在中华民族的历史长河中，每当国家面临生死存亡之秋，总有志士仁人，不惜毁家纾国，抛头颅、洒热血，牺牲自己来挽救国家，这些故事的浸染萌发了我为民族的复兴奉献一己之力的初衷。

1971年我考上台湾大学，并当选为大一学生会主席，入校时恰逢保卫钓鱼岛运动方兴未艾，钓鱼岛列岛历来是中国的领土，在日本占领台湾时，钓鱼岛列岛归我的家乡宜兰管辖。1970年美国政府宣布将于隔年把二战后托管的钓鱼岛列岛和冲绳一并“归还”日本，为此海外台湾留学生群情激奋，掀起了声势浩大的保卫钓鱼岛运动，我进入台湾大学时，作为学生会主席不时参与集会声讨美国、日本。接着于当年10月联合国以压倒多数的票数通过决议恢复了中华人民共和国在联合国的席位，台湾人民甚为迷茫，在风雨飘摇之感弥漫台湾社会之际，坐而言不如起而行，我从台湾大学转学陆军官校，希望能够力挽狂澜尽一名青年应有的责任。

在陆军官校学习的四年，我有更多的时间思考中华民族的未来。逐渐地我认识到美国不顾钓鱼岛主权归属中国的历史事实，把托管的钓鱼岛移交给日本，本质上与一战后巴黎和会上列强把战败的德国在青岛的租界不是归还给作为战胜国之一的中国而是移交给另外一个列强日本如出一辙。这个认识让我幡然醒悟，民族不复兴，人为刀俎我为鱼肉的民族命运就不能改变。当年偏安一隅，人口1700万的台湾在国民党的统治下，虽然在经济上可以红红火火，成为值得骄傲的亚洲四小龙之一，可是对攸关自己国家的领土和民族尊严的大事却毫无话语权和影响力可言，在以政治利益和军事实力为博弈准则的国际格局面前，中华民族的复兴只能有赖于10亿人口的祖国大陆的全面发展和强大，而且，大陆的发展不仅可以给台湾人民进一步的发展提供更为广阔的空间，也会让台湾终于可以摆脱百多年来作为低人一等的殖民地或作为棋子任列强摆布的命运。

1975年陆军官校毕业，我留校担任学生连队的排长，次年考上台湾最难考的政治大学企业管理研究所，两年硕士学业完成，1978年回到部队，随军移防金门，担任距离大陆最近的马山连连长。那时，每当于晨曦薄雾和落日余晖之时隔着一弯浅浅的海峡眺望对岸宁静幽远有如宋人山水画的南太武美景，我的心潮总是如脚下岸边的潮水般来回激荡，我是应该留在台湾作为一名明星式的精英追求顺风顺水的个人仕途，还是应该听从内心的召唤，回到未曾踏足，仍处贫穷落后的祖国大陆为其发展添砖加瓦？从小对自己的期许，让我选择了后者。

中国知识分子历来以国家兴亡为己任，1840年鸦片战争以后，在我之前已经有5代为复兴民族而努力的知识分子，包括曾国藩、李鸿章、张之洞等推动洋务运动的第一代，康有为、梁启超、谭嗣同等推动戊戌变法和孙中山、黄兴、宋教仁等推动民主革命的第二代，陈独秀、李大钊、胡适等推动新文化和五四运动的第三代，五四运动以后进入大学毕业后参加北伐、抗战和社会主义革命的第四代，以及1949年以后进入大学毕业后参加社会主义建设的第五代。他们作为知识精英为了民族的复兴都付出了不愧于后人的血与泪的努力，但是，以经济基础来衡量，中国在国际上的地位依然不断下滑，民族的复兴仍然是一个遥不可及的梦。

相比于鸦片战争以来的前面5代知识分子而言我是幸运的，1978年的改革开放以后，我国迎来了连续四十多年的快速增长，现在我国比历史上任何时期都更接近民族的伟大复兴，我1979年回归祖国恰逢其时，目睹也参与了这场人类历史上的经济增长奇迹。时代的需要让我有机会于1994年和几位志同道合的朋友在北京大学成立中国经济研究中心（现为国家发展研究院），带动了我国经济学教育的现代化，研究的本土化、规范化、国际化，并开启了学术研究和政策研究相结合的风气，成为国家的高端智库之一。我个人也因此水涨船高，得以在2008年出任被称为世界上经济学家最高职位、历来只有美欧著名经济学家才有资格担任的世界银行高级副行长兼主管发展政策的首席经济学家。世界银行工作时切身体验到的中国的蓬勃发展和其他亚非拉发展中国家在西方主流理论指导下一直未能摆脱贫困或中等收入陷阱的强烈对比，让我有底气挣脱发展中国家知识精英普遍存在的“西天取经”的思维范式，在世界银行工作结束后回到北京大学创立了新结构经济学研究院，推动总结自我国发展经验的新结构经济学理论体系的自主创新。基于中国改革发展经验的研究成果也让我登上了英国剑桥大学年度马歇尔经济学讲座和美国耶鲁大学年度库兹内茨经济学讲座的世界顶级学术平台，并获得了欧美港澳等海外10所大学的荣誉博士学位，成为首位获选为发展中国家科学院（原第三世界科学院）院士和英国科学院外籍院士的中国经济学者，尤其在改革开放四十周年时我荣幸地以改革理论的探索者成为获得中共中央国务院颁授改革先锋称号和奖章的百人之一。

一个人成就一件事，要有“天时、地利、人和”，祖国的欣欣向荣给了我们这代人许许多多成就个人梦想的“天时”，生长生活在改革开放的祖国大陆则给了我们做出一番事业的“地利”，当然“人和”也是不可或缺的重要因素。在台湾时父母兄姐为供我读书节衣缩食，许多老师、长官对我勉励有加，回到祖国大陆以后不管是在北大读书，到美国求学，学成后回到祖国工作，也总有许多师长、领导照顾我的生活，为我的工作创造条件，以及一群相知相契直谅多闻的朋友、筚路蓝缕同甘共苦的同事、少年英俊奋发向上的学生相互提携砥砺前行，更有关山万里一路相伴相随无怨无悔的妻子和一对子女。

回首往事，从为赋新词强说愁的少年，到如今我也已经到了随心所欲而不逾矩之年。两岸人生一路走来所幸波涛不惊，若有所成要感谢的人很多，有不少有恩于我的幼时亲长前辈已经只能来生再谢，也有些知交仍处两岸相隔未能促膝相谈把酒言欢，这些遗憾只能以四十三年犹未忘者乡音、故情、少年志的寸心来表白。瞻望前路，在百年未有之大变局的世界新格局中当以不知老之将至以及春蚕到死丝方尽来勉励自己，为民族复兴大业的最终完成继续竭尽所能以回报在我成长的过程中关心我、照顾我、鼓励我、支持我的众多亲长、老师、朋友。

Reflections of My Life at Age Seventy: I am fortunate to be living in an era of national rejuvenation full of hope and opportunities

Justin Yifu Lin

I was born in 1952 in Yilan, located at the northeastern corner of Taiwan. Yilan is protected by mountains on three sides and faces the Pacific Ocean on the other. It is blessed with the beauty of nature and populated by simple-living folks. When I was young, Taiwan had only been freed from Japanese colonial rule for not too long and we needed a lot of rebuilding. Our economy at that time was as under-developed as our motherland across the Taiwan Strait. I remember when I was in elementary school, my canvas schoolbag was a hand-me-down from my elder brother and sister that had been patched and re-patched over and over again. Despite those difficult times, I have a lot of fond childhood memories. Just like most other kids in those days, I loved to visit temple fairs, watch free Taiwanese operas offered during private celebrations and public festivals and read the latest comics. When I was a little older, I became fascinated by Chinese classics such as Journey to the West, Water Margin, and Romance of the Three Kingdoms. History was one of my most favorite subjects at school. By the time I was attending junior high, I had already read Li Dongfang’s Detailed Chinese History series and Cai Dongfan’s Popular Romance of the Chinese Dynasties. This seemingly aimless dabbling in historical tales during my youth inadvertently awakened me to the fact that, all through the long and winding river of Chinese history, whenever the country faces mortal dangers, there are always people with lofty ideals who will not hesitate to give up their family, bleed themselves dry and even lose their heads, selflessly sacrificing themselves in order to save the country. Influenced by these heroic tales, ideas began to germinate in my mind of wanting to contribute toward China's rejuvenation.

In 1971, I was admitted to Taiwan University and was elected president of the Freshman Student Union. At the time, the movement to defend the Diaoyu Islands was at its peak. The Diaoyu Islands have always been Chinese territory. When Japan occupied Taiwan, the Diaoyu Islands were under the jurisdiction of my hometown, Yilan. In 1970, the U.S. government unilaterally dictated that it would “return” the Diaoyu Islands and Okinawa, which were administered by the U.S. after World War II, to Japan in the following year. This caused great consternation and agitation among overseas Taiwanese students, and they launched a huge movement to defend the Diaoyu Islands. As the president of the student union, I participated in rallies from time to time to denounce the United States and Japan. Then, in October of 1971, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution (Res. 2758) with an overwhelming majority of votes to restore the People's Republic of China's seat representing China in the United Nations. People in Taiwan were at a loss as to their place in the world. During this period when uncertainty pervaded the society in Taiwan, I believed that action would speak louder than words. Therefore, I transferred from Taiwan University to the Military Academy, hoping to fulfill my responsibilities as a young man and help Taiwan turn back the tide.

During my four years of education at the Military Academy, I had more time to think about the future of China. I realized gradually that the United States’ total disregard of the historical fact that sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands belonged to China, and its decision to hand the islands to Japan instead, was very similar to what the great powers did at the Paris Peace Conference after World War I. They did not return Qingdao and the Shandong concessions of the defeated Germany to China, an ally of the victorious nations, but handed it over to another colonial power, Japan, instead. This awakening helped me understand that if China did not regain its strength, its fate as meat on the chopping board for more powerful nations would not change. Back then, Taiwan, with a population of seventeen million living in relative peace in that corner of the world, thrived economically under the rule of Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) as one of the four Asian Tigers. It was an achievement Taiwanese people could be proud of. They had, however, no influence or even the right to speak in defense of their own country’s territorial integrity and national dignity. In the face of an international order based on geopolitical interests and military strength, the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation could only depend on the all-round development and the overall strengthening of the motherland with its population of one billion. In addition, the development of the mainland would not only provide more opportunities for the Taiwanese people, but it would allow Taiwan, after existing for more than a century at the mercy of foreign powers, to finally shed its fate of either being a colony or a pawn.

After graduating from the Military Academy in 1975, I stayed on at the school as a platoon leader of the Cadets Company. The next year, I was admitted into the MBA program of Taiwan’s Chengchi University, having passed one of the hardest admittance exams for a university in Taiwan. I successfully completed my Master’s degree after two years, returned to the army in 1978, and was deployed to Kinmen to serve as the commander of the Mashan Company, which was posted closest to the mainland. In those days, whenever I looked across the shallow strait through the morning mist and in the twilight of the setting sun, gazing at the tranquil and serene beauty of Nantaiwu (south Taiwu mountain of Fujian, sister peak of Kinmen’s north Taiwu mountain), which reminded me of a Song dynasty landscape painting, my heart always surged back and forth like the tides under my feet. Should I stay in Taiwan as a glorified member of the elite to pursue a smooth personal career, or should I listen to the voices in my own heart, and return to a motherland on which I had never set foot, and which was still poor and backward, to contribute to its development? My aspirations since childhood made me choose the latter.

Chinese intellectuals have always taken personal responsibility for the rise and fall of the country. Following the First Opium War in 1840, five generations of Chinese intellectuals have striven tirelessly for the revival of the nation. The first generation included Zeng Guofan, Li Hongzhang, Zhang Zhidong and others who promoted the Westernization Movement. For the second generation, there were Kang Youwei, Liang Qichao, Tan Sitong and others who participated in the Hundred Days’ Reform of 1898, as well as Dr. Sun Yat-sen, Huang Xing and Song Jiaoren, with many others who kick-started the democratic revolution in China. Chen Duxiu, Li Dazhao, Hu Shih and other third-generation intellectuals promoted New Culture Movement and the May Fourth Movement. The fourth generation graduated from university after the May Fourth Movement and participated in the Northern Expedition, the War of Resistance of Japanese occupation and the Socialist Revolution. Finally, the fifth-generation intellectuals were those who graduated from university after 1949 and participated in the socialist construction of China. As intellectuals, all of them have paid their dues in blood and tears for the rejuvenation of China. Their efforts are worthy of gratitude and respect in posterity. By economic standards, however, China’s international standing was in decline, and its national rejuvenation was still a distant and unattainable dream.

I consider myself lucky in comparison to the previous five generations of intellectuals since the First Opium War. After the reform and opening up in 1978, China has ushered in rapid growth for more than forty consecutive years. Now it is closer than at any other time in recent history to the great rejuvenation of the nation. I returned to the motherland in 1979 at a most opportune time, being able to witness and take part in this miraculous economic growth that is unprecedented in human history. The educational needs of the times gave me the opportunity to set up the China Economic Research Center (now the National School of Development) at Peking University with a few like-minded friends in 1994. Since then, it has been driving China’s modernization in economics education, as well as the localization, standardization and internationalization of economics research, at the same time engendering the propensity for combining academic research with policy research, making the school one of China’s most prestigious think tanks in economics. As a result of the school’s success, which elevated my status in the area of economics, I was appointed in 2008 to the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Economist in charge of development policies at the World Bank. These were acknowledged to be the highest positions in the world for an economist, and which, prior to my appointment, had only been occupied by well-known economists from the United States and Europe. During my tenure at the World Bank, I noticed the sharp contrast between China’s economic boom and the less robust growth of other developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, which, under the guidance of Western mainstream theories, have been unable to escape poverty or the middle-income trap. This gave me the confidence to break free from the paradigm of “learning from the West,” which was commonly accepted as dogma among intellectual elites in developing countries. After completing my term at the World Bank, I returned to Peking University and founded the Institute of New Structural Economics to promote independent innovation in theories for new structural economics based on China’s own experience in economic development. The results of my research based on China’s reform and development experience have also given me the chance to speak at the world’s top-notch academic platforms, such as Cambridge University’s annual Marshall Lectures on economics and Yale University’s annual Simon Kuznets Memorial Lecture on economic development. Over the years, I have received honorary doctorates from ten universities in Europe, North America, Hong Kong and Macau. I was the first Chinese economist to be elected both as a fellow of The World Academy of Sciences for the Advancement of Science in Developing Countries (formerly the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World and the Third World Academy of Sciences) and a corresponding fellow of the British Academy. Most importantly, on the 40th anniversary of China’s reform and opening up, I was honored to be recognized as an explorer of reform and was one of a hundred people to be awarded a medal with the title of Reform Pioneer by the State Council of the Chinese Central Government.

For a person to accomplish anything, it is necessary for that person to be in the right place, at the right time and possess the support of the right people. Growing up and living in mainland China during its reforms and opening up means we are in the right place for developing our careers. The growing prosperity of the motherland has given many individuals such as myself the right timing to fulfill our dreams. Of course, having the support of the right people is paramount. When I was in Taiwan, my parents and my elder siblings scrimped on their expenses so that I could go to school. Many teachers and superior officers gave me encouragements that drove me to excel. After returning to mainland China, it did not matter whether I was studying at Peking University, getting my PhD in the United States or coming back to work in China after having received my doctorate, I was always lucky to have many teachers and officials who looked after me and helped me kick-start my career. At the same time, I have the unconditional support of a group of dear friends; we know each other well, we understand each other perfectly and we constantly learn from each other. I am fortunate to have colleagues at work who are always ready to share everything with me through both the good times and the bad. And I am blessed to have my young ambitious students to walk hand-in-hand with me toward the bright future that awaits us. Last but not least, I would be nothing without the love and understanding of my wife and our two children, who have had to overcome many difficulties in order that I could achieve my aspirations.

I reflect now at my past, from the times when I was young and melancholy about the future and questioning the grand scheme of things, until today, when I have reached the age of being able to do what I want without exceeding the rules as Confucius prescribed. My life on both sides of the strait has experienced some waves; fortunately, I have survived. If I have achieved anything so far, then there are too many people to whom I owe my sincere gratitude. There are many kin, relatives and elders who were kind to me and had helped me when I was young, but I can no longer thank them in this life. There are also dear friends on the other side of the strait with whom I cannot meet for a drink and chat about old times. These regrets can only be expressed by these feeble words coming from the heart of someone who, after forty-three long years, has not forgotten his accent, old tales of his hometown and the aspirations of youth. Going forward, in the new world order of great changes unseen in a century, I will ignore my old age and keep working, as “the spring silkworm does not stop spinning until it dies” (from famous poem Untitled by Tang dynasty poet Li Shangyin). I will continue to do everything within my ability to help the motherland achieve the goal of national rejuvenation. This I promise as the only way I can repay the many relatives and elders, teachers and friends, who have cared about me, looked after me, encouraged me and supported me during all these years.

N.B. Some of the hyperlinks, especially to Wikipedia articles, are only for cursory reference to help those readers who may not be familiar with the subject. It should be noted that there is no guarantee that Wikipedia articles are either accurate or unbiased. Readers who are interested should conduct independent research from more reliable sources.

Last message from Prof. Lin:

Dear Peter,
This is just fabulous! Thank you very much for your generous support in translating this personal reflection ... I would like to hear more of your stories as well. Hope that we can meet in person someday soon.

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Eulogy for dear sister Pauline (D. May 6, 2022)

18/6/2022

I guess all of us here in this intimate gathering of family and friends already know very well who Pauline was. There is no need for me to repeat things. I will therefore share a story of my personal relationship with my sister. Pauline made me funny. She laughed at all my jokes, whether they're funny or not. I can say anything, like "look, here's a couch," and she would laugh her head off. This encouraged me to tell more jokes. So every time we got together, we would joke and laugh from beginning to end. We always had a good time. Her departure from us is too soon and too sudden. If I can make a wish, I wish that I can tell her a joke to take along with her, sort of have her go laughing. I will now share that joke with you. It is from a great modern day philosopher by the name of Yogi Berra. For those of you who have not heard of Yogi Berra, he is the one who said, "Let's not go to that restaurant; it's so busy nobody goes there any more." For this sadder occasion, he also has an advice, "Always go to other people's funerals; otherwise, they won't go to yours." Thank you for coming.

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Reflections of my Life at Age 70 by Professor Justin Yifu Lin

Eulogy for dear sister Pauline (D. May 6, 2022)

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